TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Hawks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hawksof Warriors, Hawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,988,758

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,988,758 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 982 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Warriors24c208,333$50,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,999.9143542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9c6…95c9backed Hawks76c199,761$151,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,942.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f45…a321backed Warriors26c110,750$28,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,794.941540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00d5…ed84backed Warriors22c86,308$19,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,084.217050%85 W · 85 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Warriors20c61,681$12,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,336.2972648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Hawks75c59,885$45,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,862.92,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e9…4044backed Warriors20c46,199$9,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,232.79053.3%48 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks67c42,787$28,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,103.074,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14cc…7c02backed Warriors23c37,747$8,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,512.5913842.8%59 W · 79 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6233…6349backed Hawks76c36,657$28,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,657.143467.6%23 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Hawks76c33,124$25,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,792.7520744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8d3…0e0fbacked Warriors22c29,150$6,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,513.48728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Warriors23c25,124$5,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,849.3428649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfec8…50f7backed Warriors41c24,390$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0005567.3%37 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+24.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks78c22,619$17,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,973.984,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Warriors23c21,552$5,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,006.361,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0f9…f569backed Warriors20c20,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0001838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Warriors24c16,391$3,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,907.1911955.5%66 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Hawks76c16,000$12,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,84022457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Warriors10c15,786$1,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,578.483039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks75c15,606$11,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,885.159,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Hawks79c15,309$12,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,276.7934851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Warriors43c15,146$6,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,543.112,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1efc…1a6bbacked Warriors27c14,924$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0001711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-77.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ba9…0516backed Warriors3c14,702$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.667412.2%9 W · 65 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe749…f660backed Warriors22c14,348$3,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,171.042548%12 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Warriors0c14,319$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.754573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Hawks75c14,201$10,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,536.643,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Warriors25c13,332$3,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,33341832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Warriors29c12,248$3,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,552.051,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4870…85f7backed Warriors21c12,100$2,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5414445.5%20 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0441…b3aabacked Hawks79c12,099$9,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,540.858441.7%35 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Warriors30c11,720$3,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,564.641,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Warriors23c11,710$2,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,682.49629.2%28 W · 68 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Warriors17c11,697$2,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,017.8693148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hawks75c11,682$8,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,881.864,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe501…5c4fbacked Hawks74c11,580$8,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,010.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05c4…a4f2backed Hawks79c11,007$8,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,311.4312045%54 W · 66 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b6…c914backed Warriors3c10,976$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.839220.7%19 W · 73 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Hawks77c10,118$7,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,289.43,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd857…c092backed Hawks75c10,009$7,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,502.257142.3%30 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Hawks75c10,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Hawks75c10,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Hawks75c10,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa25d…2227backed Hawks75c10,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50010641.5%44 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Warriors24c9,633$2,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,311.9220947.8%100 W · 109 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Warriors21c9,593$2,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,014.632540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Warriors22c9,472$2,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,083.898662.8%54 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Hawks80c9,018$7,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,840.881,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Warriors23c8,594$1,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,976.5139349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Warriors23c8,522$1,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,980.8631644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0072…3d75backed Hawks80c8,517$6,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,703.414738.1%56 W · 91 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Hawks79c7,607$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,606.771,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Warriors26c7,520$1,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,954.3824942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Warriors26c7,434$1,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,932.7627241.9%114 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d2a…9ee3backed Warriors28c7,323$2,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,028.4485248.9%417 W · 435 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Warriors20c7,100$1,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,430.981,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Warriors25c7,000$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Hawks65c6,835$4,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,390.161,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Hawks62c6,723$4,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,554.742,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Warriors20c6,692$1,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.344,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Warriors23c6,427$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.0724841.1%102 W · 146 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd1…e532backed Hawks80c6,135$4,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.053268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd839…8fc8backed Warriors30c5,987$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8005952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hawks74c5,967$4,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,547.65,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Warriors20c5,927$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.4917250.6%87 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Warriors26c5,924$1,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,538.7425049.2%123 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Hawks73c5,815$4,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,569.9223147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Hawks76c5,623$4,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.692,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Warriors23c5,086$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.511,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Warriors26c5,085$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,322.137747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors25c5,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2501,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4e6…4a4dbacked Hawks80c4,925$3,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9856258.1%36 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked Hawks75c4,782$3,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.4813959.7%83 W · 56 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Warriors21c4,762$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00024831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hawks79c4,738$3,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990.242,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Warriors29c4,566$1,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32415850.6%80 W · 78 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Warriors0c4,565$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.98820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b9…0eddbacked Warriors27c4,550$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.51747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Warriors33c4,500$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48510743%46 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cc2…b9a2backed Warriors19c4,400$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-72.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f20…96a8backed Hawks78c4,394$3,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.68862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe80…0784backed Warriors23c4,335$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9971020%2 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-56.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Hawks78c4,201$3,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.3362144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa73a…656abacked Warriors10c4,152$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.2325226.6%67 W · 185 L-26.7wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Warriors19c4,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x62fb…b277backed Hawks75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e7…0609backed Hawks80c4,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8001435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-50.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb8b…95cbbacked Warriors20c4,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Hawks76c3,972$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.9335650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Warriors26c3,960$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.5217550.9%89 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc984…195ebacked Warriors23c3,887$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8904850%24 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Hawks74c3,815$2,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.712,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Warriors24c3,551$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.341,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Hawks79c3,500$2,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73586641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Hawks79c3,500$2,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.9929250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked Hawks76c3,500$2,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.9510450%52 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Hawks78c3,427$2,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.9717646%81 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Warriors7c3,407$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.321,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3335…3656backed Warriors19c3,300$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6278759.8%52 W · 35 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+33.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.