NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72845218f58a8538a6f74b54c7f95f4ac69c4b0b9c5b09a132486657ca35ea5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,526 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0697…fb17backed Over | 50c | 15,600$7,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,800 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 6,768$3,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,427.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…b4a7backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…65e7backed Over | 50c | 2,546$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d7…cb5abacked Over | 50c | 2,546$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f66…7a78backed Over | 50c | 2,433$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…2e18backed Over | 50c | 2,400$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44f…aa4fbacked Under | 50c | 2,290$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Over | 50c | 2,284$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 50c | 2,154$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.77 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d0…c9a6backed Under | 50c | 1,740$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 1,563$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dc…e971backed Over | 50c | 1,448$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef99…ef8dbacked Over | 50c | 1,413$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.67 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Over | 50c | 1,410$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb28…4534backed Over | 50c | 1,342$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3e…20cfbacked Under | 50c | 1,326$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…9905backed Under | 50c | 1,240$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…4767backed Over | 50c | 1,153$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.64 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bc…a611backed Over | 50c | 1,011$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3c…7ac0backed Over | 50c | 964$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…8170backed Under | 51c | 799.98$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.99 | 181 | 47%85 W · 96 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 50c | 699.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 313 | 54.3%170 W · 143 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed9…5a9abacked Under | 50c | 566$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…0efcbacked Over | 50c | 563.74$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.87 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 50c | 454$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e9…6d8ebacked Under | 51c | 337.81$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.28 | 154 | 46.1%71 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 328.8$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.46 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 291.89$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.95 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 11c | 279$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Over | 50c | 250.2$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.2 | 248 | 49.6%123 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…763bbacked Under | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 337 | 48.1%162 W · 175 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 50c | 228.61$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.46 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…950abacked Under | 51c | 220.43$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…9297backed Under | 50c | 219.31$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.66 | 169 | 42%71 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ae…3e8fbacked Over | 50c | 210.48$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 17c | 209.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b75…2cc3backed Over | 50c | 201.04$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Over | 50c | 199.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d4…361ebacked Under | 51c | 196.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…4834backed Over | 50c | 189.06$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…bc3bbacked Under | 51c | 183.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c1…d89bbacked Over | 50c | 182.16$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…36acbacked Under | 51c | 182.14$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c1…a3b7backed Under | 50c | 169$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 50c | 165.52$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7907…2ad0backed Over | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…d02bbacked Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddb…5168backed Over | 50c | 133$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 49c | 99.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 13c | 98.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362a…8683backed Over | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 76.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086a…172bbacked Under | 51c | 76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 40c | 45.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03a…d7c4backed Over | 50c | 45.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Over | 50c | 45.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 198 | 51%101 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 51c | 45.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…df68backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 50c | 38.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 48c | 35.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Under | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 548 | 54.2%297 W · 251 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 50c | 33.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993b…ecfbbacked Over | 47c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49b…adf9backed Over | 46c | 30.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d70…d647backed Under | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 50c | 21.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a6…6e3fbacked Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…6519backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bd…adccbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Hawks (-10.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-11.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won
- Warriors vs. HawksHawks won
- Warriors vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Warriors vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Hawks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.