NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdb08532de887d27a66792c615004fa681db563d8e82e86663a5440561ffda83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,873 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 50c | 25,000$12,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,523.99 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 49c | 7,188$3,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,517 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 5,490$2,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,732.79 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 3,410$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720.32 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Under | 51c | 2,919$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.69 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 50c | 2,502$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.18 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 1,915$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.47 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 51c | 1,781$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.22 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 20c | 1,769$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.61 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 14c | 1,750$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.65 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e9…39b0backed Over | 75c | 1,689$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.65 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 1,365$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.09 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Over | 52c | 969.98$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.59 | 348 | 55.2%192 W · 156 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 51c | 873.47$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.47 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490b…eec9backed Over | 49c | 861.22$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.22 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…dda7backed Over | 53c | 848.72$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.9 | 242 | 47.1%114 W · 128 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 48c | 717$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.16 | 348 | 51.7%180 W · 168 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 51c | 695$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.74 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 51c | 638.65$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.71 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 593.89$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.91 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 10c | 386.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x9734…8f5ebacked Over | 50c | 346$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 50c | 309.76$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.84 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed Under | 51c | 223.76$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 75c | 206.68$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 188 | 50.5%95 W · 93 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 49c | 199.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 51c | 196$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 51c | 190.81$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.31 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 20c | 177.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Over | 80c | 175$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 33c | 173.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 76c | 172.15$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Under | 48c | 150.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.33 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 51c | 150.14$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 52c | 136$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over | 51c | 121.48$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 51c | 113.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 50c | 109.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 47c | 100.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x514e…a604backed Under | 51c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Under | 16c | 94.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 216 | 37.5%81 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 29c | 77.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 77c | 72.91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 388 | 53.4%207 W · 181 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Under | 28c | 72.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 180 | 52.2%94 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Over | 53c | 48.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5254…372dbacked Over | 52c | 45.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b19…a47fbacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Under | 52c | 38.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 52.5%115 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56bf…5c19backed Under | 51c | 30.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Under | 46c | 23.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…4b61backed Over | 50c | 23.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 50c | 22.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 400 | 48.3%193 W · 207 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 135 | 48.1%65 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Hawks (-10.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-11.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won
- Warriors vs. HawksHawks won
- Warriors vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Warriors vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Hawks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.