NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69acfda0964a153ed9c04258cdd05025878d3fe3a05f899bd50fcf7cfdeca622
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Hawks, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,805 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 56c | 5,654$3,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,182.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d5…ed84backed Warriors | 57c | 5,389$3,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,071.53 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Warriors | 59c | 4,029$2,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,377.27 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks | 43c | 2,231$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.33 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hawks | 43c | 1,886$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.85 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Hawks | 44c | 1,821$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.76 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Hawks | 42c | 1,731$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.51 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Hawks | 45c | 973.33$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.33 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9385…2484backed Hawks | 47c | 671.66$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.98 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Hawks | 41c | 536.59$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.59 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…8a18backed Warriors | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…aa15backed Warriors | 58c | 347.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Warriors | 27c | 345$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.09 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Hawks | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca15…f1b3backed Hawks | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 73c | 204.72$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.07 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…e3b4backed Warriors | 55c | 183.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Hawks | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Hawks | 11c | 148.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.88 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Hawks | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Warriors | 59c | 98.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Warriors | 59c | 82.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…3e87backed Hawks | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 114 | 40.4%46 W · 68 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Hawks | 46c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03a…d7c4backed Warriors | 57c | 50.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa261…da11backed Warriors | 78c | 45.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 67cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Hawks | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Hawks | 68c | 31.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Hawks | 42c | 31.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb3…c184backed Warriors | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Hawks (-10.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won
- Warriors vs. HawksHawks won
- Warriors vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Warriors vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Hawks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.