Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x280be1ddf9ef30c559a6f00aa9393d1e19502d65452f000d9dfb6a87efac4193
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $299,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $256,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $299,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed Yes | 1c | 37,460$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.14 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…fec8backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…9400backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 1c | 13,447$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.36 | 126 | 21.4%27 W · 99 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…cd90backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…e9f5backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 1c | 5,799$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 5,789$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 1,083 | 8.2%89 W · 994 L | +28.5wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 368 | 10.9%40 W · 328 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 1c | 4,969$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 218 | 22%48 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…9917backed Yes | 9c | 4,700$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.99 | 79 | 20.3%16 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 3c | 4,114$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.34 | 530 | 10.6%56 W · 474 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 20c | 3,475$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.2 | 150 | 28%42 W · 108 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,284$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 463 | 8.2%38 W · 425 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 456 | 11.6%53 W · 403 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 2c | 2,557$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 6c | 1,906$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.35 | 337 | 22.3%75 W · 262 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,717$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.62 | 411 | 23.1%95 W · 316 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes | 2c | 1,714$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,668$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ae34backed Yes | 2c | 1,597$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 1c | 1,545$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,452$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…c878backed Yes | 1c | 1,423$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,337$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 8c | 1,305$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.64 | 1,062 | 13.7%145 W · 917 L | +38.5wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 5c | 1,123$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 222 | 5.9%13 W · 209 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,119$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…132abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +57%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3c…1a17backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 170 | 16.5%28 W · 142 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 5c | 900$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 306 | 17%52 W · 254 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 11c | 837.25$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 6c | 800$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 4c | 800$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 436 | 19.3%84 W · 352 L | +24.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 1c | 773.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 584 | 22.1%129 W · 455 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056d…3b69backed Yes | 7c | 772.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 2c | 769.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 11c | 736.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 894 | 18.7%167 W · 727 L | +10.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 13c | 672.96$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.81 | 423 | 19.4%82 W · 341 L | -19.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 11c | 650.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 590 | 20.8%123 W · 467 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 584.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 538.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 809 | 11.1%90 W · 719 L | +29.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f2…0822backed Yes | 22c | 454.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 6c | 421.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 177 | 35%62 W · 115 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes | 8c | 342.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 135 | 16.3%22 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 13c | 333.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 280 | 23.9%67 W · 213 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…0f80backed Yes | 6c | 310.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4419…19d7backed Yes | 22c | 300.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 328 | 43.3%142 W · 186 L | +28.5wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 297.83$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 8c | 291.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…ad14backed Yes | 18c | 285$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 7c | 281.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 156 | 31.4%49 W · 107 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 20c | 279.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 278 | 20.9%58 W · 220 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 18c | 215$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 216 | 33.3%72 W · 144 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 9c | 203.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1,041 | 11%115 W · 926 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa92b…e0c9backed No | 80c | 182$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 75cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 10c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 80c | 140$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 153 | 64.7%99 W · 54 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 10c | 137.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 80c | 129$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 652 | 21.5%140 W · 512 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…f8bbbacked Yes | 22c | 125.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +163.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 121.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 526 | 45.6%240 W · 286 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 24c | 115.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 712 | 16.7%119 W · 593 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…1300backed Yes | 23c | 113.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4381…6bd6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 205 | 32.7%67 W · 138 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 15c | 85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…ce73backed Yes | 21c | 85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14b…3810backed Yes | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6b…0420backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 101 | 29.7%30 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f03…7308backed Yes | 25c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 23c | 43.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 241 | 35.3%85 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 79c | 18.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…b63bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.