TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$267,217
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$289,864

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $267,217 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 318 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes72c10,001$7,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.6356329.8%168 W · 395 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e9c…9a07backed No5c6,052$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3255334%18 W · 35 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked No59c5,283$3,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,094.6513844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed No34c4,960$1,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,707.619233.7%31 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2f2…1762backed Yes34c4,885$1,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,207.738812.5%11 W · 77 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-65.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb06…ca56backed No2c4,544$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.152050%10 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes52c4,189$2,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,992.2353222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1c9…fadabacked Yes50c4,031$2,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,028.072821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No25c3,961$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.3819756.9%112 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No33c3,682$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.0215844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes45c3,574$1,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,950.2363414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes73c3,102$2,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.2743719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes45c3,019$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,648.948321.7%18 W · 65 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-47.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No22c2,932$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.520857.2%119 W · 89 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdaa…fec8backed No33c2,570$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.055529.1%16 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No46c2,545$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.9130854.9%169 W · 139 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No36c2,526$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.449057.8%52 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No35c2,519$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.436216.1%10 W · 52 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-66.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes73c2,404$1,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.7322926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No40c2,359$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.0413430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b73…c441backed No3c2,317$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.936254.8%34 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4dd…cfccbacked Yes78c2,311$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x881a…ccccbacked No17c2,217$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.4613235.6%47 W · 85 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x99d1…ee7abacked No1c2,207$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes70c2,117$1,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.0957222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked No36c2,045$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.8114332.9%47 W · 96 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No60c2,031$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.9621959.8%131 W · 88 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No35c1,968$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.7887618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes40c1,900$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.2539723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed No52c1,749$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.0720226.7%54 W · 148 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes58c1,718$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.5710730.8%33 W · 74 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked No8c1,686$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.1527820.9%58 W · 220 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed No29c1,610$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.8570616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No18c1,592$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.744568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No39c1,526$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.374944.9%22 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No58c1,477$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.638648.2%186 W · 200 L+15.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed No23c1,470$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.854122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked No37c1,430$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.9817335.3%61 W · 112 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes59c1,388$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.8721429.9%64 W · 150 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e6e…fa58backed Yes35c1,381$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.226630.3%20 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes43c1,364$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.2141230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No41c1,339$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.4523955.2%132 W · 107 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes32c1,333$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.777920.3%16 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No44c1,301$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.938148.1%39 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes38c1,263$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.6663021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes73c1,216$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.6315929.6%47 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed No7c1,204$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5830714%43 W · 264 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No24c1,123$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.8216941.4%70 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No47c1,109$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.9916750.3%84 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No8c1,062$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6810738.3%41 W · 66 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes70c1,055$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.4711932.8%39 W · 80 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes41c1,050$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.855024%12 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c1,025$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.862,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes74c1,000$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.53138.7%12 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4355…c5d4backed No2c999.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215014%7 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes37c992.01$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.6519731%61 W · 136 L+13.8wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No13c979.19$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.411637.1%43 W · 73 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes21c958.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.2833527.8%93 W · 242 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed No20c949.99$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.545511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes41c888.99$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.8323212.1%28 W · 204 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3335…fbd6backed No30c870$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2618532.9%28 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes68c847.73$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.2716427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f8…5c82backed No27c842.52$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes36c839.04$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.5275122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked No19c834.45$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.422023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0857…063ebacked No54c800$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4321353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac6b…a962backed Yes43c795.74$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.1415932.7%52 W · 107 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4982…fe01backed Yes40c755.29$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.2911529.6%34 W · 81 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No43c732.92$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.2534039.7%135 W · 205 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No56c731.17$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.3514451.4%74 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes66c721.44$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.4440519.8%80 W · 325 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd76…77bdbacked No32c699.98$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.973557.1%20 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked No32c684.52$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22112825.8%33 W · 95 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+50.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes62c666.37$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.6111729.1%34 W · 83 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe41…556cbacked Yes76c658.16$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.16580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b7d…d2dcbacked No34c657.62$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.591361.5%8 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81c…3348backed Yes80c630.13$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.381136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-45.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No28c628.44$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.3910146.5%47 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes39c611.24$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.249035.6%32 W · 58 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b8…1305backed No33c610.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005944.1%26 W · 33 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a65…ecdfbacked Yes18c609.93$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.837122.5%16 W · 55 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes76c600$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14242628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8409…753dbacked No17c600$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1024146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes52c600$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.8429227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed No47c599.99$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.57820.5%16 W · 62 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No68c578.22$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.1221732.3%70 W · 147 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b3b…5ae2backed Yes67c571.4$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.561241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No23c562$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.269743.3%42 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked No21c548.6$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7613611.8%16 W · 120 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes45c530$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.114625.3%37 W · 109 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4473…28adbacked Yes43c522.33$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.1418419%35 W · 149 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+42.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a3…eac8backed No38c520.99$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.5319124.6%47 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed No41c519.82$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.9831224.7%77 W · 235 L-0.5wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed No34c515.77$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.5187917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0ce…f82bbacked Yes61c515$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.852540%10 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No30c503.91$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.3810325.2%26 W · 77 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2b8…e9f3backed No21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1056020%12 W · 48 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc3…4972backed Yes40c498.15$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.1921242.5%90 W · 122 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x021f…4ec7backed Yes66c479.2$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.03580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8226…6520backed Yes76c479.04$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.977240.3%29 W · 43 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.