Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbc10a7d9684e390249842e557e02f9ae846544736d26e0c6b3b2a4bbc08a00a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $267,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $289,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $267,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 318 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 72c | 10,001$7,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,799.63 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…9a07backed No | 5c | 6,052$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked No | 59c | 5,283$3,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,094.65 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 34c | 4,960$1,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,707.61 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed Yes | 34c | 4,885$1,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,207.73 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb06…ca56backed No | 2c | 4,544$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 52c | 4,189$2,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,992.23 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c9…fadabacked Yes | 50c | 4,031$2,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,028.07 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 25c | 3,961$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.38 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 33c | 3,682$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.02 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 45c | 3,574$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.23 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 73c | 3,102$2,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.27 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes | 45c | 3,019$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.94 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 22c | 2,932$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.5 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…fec8backed No | 33c | 2,570$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.05 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 2,545$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.91 | 308 | 54.9%169 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 36c | 2,526$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.44 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 35c | 2,519$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.43 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 2,404$1,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.73 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 40c | 2,359$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.04 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…c441backed No | 3c | 2,317$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dd…cfccbacked Yes | 78c | 2,311$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked No | 17c | 2,217$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.46 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…ee7abacked No | 1c | 2,207$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 70c | 2,117$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.09 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked No | 36c | 2,045$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.81 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 60c | 2,031$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.96 | 219 | 59.8%131 W · 88 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 35c | 1,968$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.78 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 40c | 1,900$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.25 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 52c | 1,749$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.07 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked Yes | 58c | 1,718$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.57 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked No | 8c | 1,686$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.15 | 278 | 20.9%58 W · 220 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 29c | 1,610$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.85 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 18c | 1,592$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.74 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 39c | 1,526$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.37 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 1,477$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.6 | 386 | 48.2%186 W · 200 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed No | 23c | 1,470$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.8 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked No | 37c | 1,430$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.98 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 59c | 1,388$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.87 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6e…fa58backed Yes | 35c | 1,381$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.22 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 43c | 1,364$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.21 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 1,339$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.45 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…9917backed Yes | 32c | 1,333$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.77 | 79 | 20.3%16 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 44c | 1,301$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.93 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 38c | 1,263$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.66 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 73c | 1,216$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.63 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…4094backed No | 7c | 1,204$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.58 | 307 | 14%43 W · 264 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 24c | 1,123$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.82 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 1,109$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.99 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 8c | 1,062$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 70c | 1,055$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.47 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 41c | 1,050$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.85 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 1,025$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.86 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 74c | 1,000$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.5 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed No | 2c | 999.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 37c | 992.01$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.65 | 197 | 31%61 W · 136 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 13c | 979.19$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.4 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 21c | 958.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.28 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed No | 20c | 949.99$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.5 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 41c | 888.99$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.83 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…fbd6backed No | 30c | 870$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 68c | 847.73$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.27 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f8…5c82backed No | 27c | 842.52$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 36c | 839.04$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.52 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked No | 19c | 834.45$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.4 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…063ebacked No | 54c | 800$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac6b…a962backed Yes | 43c | 795.74$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.14 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…fe01backed Yes | 40c | 755.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.29 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 43c | 732.92$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.25 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 56c | 731.17$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.35 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 66c | 721.44$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.44 | 405 | 19.8%80 W · 325 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 32c | 699.98$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.97 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked No | 32c | 684.52$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 128 | 25.8%33 W · 95 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed Yes | 62c | 666.37$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.61 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…556cbacked Yes | 76c | 658.16$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…d2dcbacked No | 34c | 657.62$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.59 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81c…3348backed Yes | 80c | 630.13$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 28c | 628.44$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.39 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes | 39c | 611.24$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.24 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…1305backed No | 33c | 610.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…ecdfbacked Yes | 18c | 609.93$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.83 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 600$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…753dbacked No | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.84 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 47c | 599.99$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.5 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 68c | 578.22$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.12 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3b…5ae2backed Yes | 67c | 571.4$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 23c | 562$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.26 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…86aebacked No | 21c | 548.6$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.76 | 136 | 11.8%16 W · 120 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 45c | 530$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.1 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…28adbacked Yes | 43c | 522.33$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.14 | 184 | 19%35 W · 149 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed No | 38c | 520.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.53 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed No | 41c | 519.82$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.98 | 312 | 24.7%77 W · 235 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 34c | 515.77$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.51 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ce…f82bbacked Yes | 61c | 515$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.85 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 30c | 503.91$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.38 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b8…e9f3backed No | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 60 | 20%12 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 40c | 498.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.19 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x021f…4ec7backed Yes | 66c | 479.2$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8226…6520backed Yes | 76c | 479.04$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.97 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.