Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% or less in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36fbe9c1660fca7b6b4eec3c439740ed67a01ba9894309135ccfdd21ec3858b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $235,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $210,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $235,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 4c | 34,333$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a403backed Yes | 7c | 18,693$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.44 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 6c | 15,737$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.6 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…339fbacked Yes | 17c | 10,209$1,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +118%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ded…4c43backed Yes | 7c | 8,597$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…561dbacked Yes | 9c | 8,231$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…195dbacked Yes | 5c | 8,210$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…7ce1backed Yes | 9c | 5,042$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 7c | 4,431$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…0e6dbacked Yes | 9c | 4,090$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 5c | 4,050$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.88 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…3fa1backed Yes | 5c | 4,011$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c3…f9e8backed Yes | 4c | 3,853$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 3,736$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.14 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 5c | 3,517$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.93 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe91d…c4c8backed Yes | 9c | 2,800$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 17c | 2,751$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb671…3c14backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31f…819bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,680$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40f3…715cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,674$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…c5babacked Yes | 6c | 1,377$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.49 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 1,375$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7924…9364backed Yes | 5c | 1,278$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e3…ec56backed Yes | 14c | 1,185$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 1,160$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 7c | 1,158$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.46 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…4250backed Yes | 5c | 1,024$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 11c | 1,008$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…253ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,002$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 729.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf52…76f9backed Yes | 11c | 546$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 6c | 512.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 7c | 460.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…c72dbacked Yes | 9c | 459.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 14c | 454.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3a…0216backed Yes | 10c | 449.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 376.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 13c | 350$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…6e2abacked Yes | 4c | 324.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 4c | 308.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 307$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0a…db49backed Yes | 9c | 282.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x978a…cd9ebacked Yes | 8c | 253.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e6…899ebacked Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…3700backed Yes | 8c | 243.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 6c | 241$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2446…50b1backed Yes | 8c | 237.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 7c | 217.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x854a…5f95backed Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6d…4a81backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…1b45backed Yes | 6c | 197.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb063…8872backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 19c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% or less in May?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in May?Yes won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.