TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$304,633
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$300,141

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $304,633 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd90c…a40fbacked Yes31c55,134$17,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,091.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ae…8f1abacked No69c55,134$38,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,091.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf187…16c0backed No69c55,127$38,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,089.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04be…a60bbacked Yes31c55,127$17,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,089.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes27c22,247$6,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,039.2112820.3%26 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes28c7,181$2,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,019.2522433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes24c4,466$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.543525.7%9 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd93c…689cbacked Yes30c4,000$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.99944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+43.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x98fa…d698backed Yes29c2,815$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.745032%16 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2684…d3d6backed Yes31c2,250$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.342630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2ae…6374backed Yes30c1,983$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes30c1,910$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.7123330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No70c1,876$1,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.449144%40 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes31c1,829$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.013228.1%9 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+159%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes29c1,606$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.774231%13 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes23c1,500$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.761010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-80.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb381…98f8backed Yes26c1,132$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.78933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+58.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes27c879.17$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.041010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-65.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No72c843$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.4512049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes23c730$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.91822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9879…5e70backed No76c661.85$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes27c641.08$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.2214024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes30c628.13$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+86.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x63a6…f308backed Yes22c618$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9740%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd134…719bbacked Yes32c600$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b63…4b44backed Yes27c600$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.693231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6147…d34ebacked Yes21c599.98$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1232540%10 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf88f…c334backed Yes28c553.86$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes32c499.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No70c488.88$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.7517528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94a3…67e3backed Yes31c449.99$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1382020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-54.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa147…3fccbacked No69c434.78$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.78450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x625c…61d1backed Yes26c429.6$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ac…7935backed Yes25c403.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes25c399.75$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.419024.4%22 W · 68 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes21c391.27$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.578636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed No70c364.6$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.552532%8 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes18c336.78$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.623522.9%8 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes27c326.4$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.071735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+46.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes27c318.36$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.962025%5 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7304…0379backed Yes22c308.14$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d3…4356backed Yes33c280$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.61428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2e3…ec56backed Yes36c267.96$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.14425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-45.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes21c242$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.824731.9%15 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked No70c222$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes25c218.32$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4511334.5%39 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c12…0e26backed Yes23c213.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes21c201.85$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8320242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a0a…db49backed Yes34c200$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed Yes20c197.45$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.49425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3161…daf5backed Yes28c189.67$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.163426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes25c180$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No73c164.44$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.871855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7984…638abacked Yes34c161.76$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552540%10 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+17.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b25…a88abacked Yes25c160$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2998…c264backed Yes33c151.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ca1…73f0backed Yes33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01e2…6808backed Yes33c150$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked No71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.851540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b08…8581backed No75c133.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes32c132.25$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.326532.3%21 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed No76c126$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.871861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+0.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c121.35$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3815148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cd7…2c89backed Yes26c115.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes23c108.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25224.5%1 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick15cpaid-69.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb167…f6e8backed Yes33c107.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.151030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6d…4a81backed Yes33c105$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.05425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa910…12c3backed Yes24c104.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d0…4843backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+79.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b1c…320ebacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6841…23bebacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf37b…da7abacked Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes24c90$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.012642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes31c85.72$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.411154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe24c…e9fabacked Yes30c83.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3820…41a6backed Yes37c82.49$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No78c82$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.142152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc44…9356backed Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda0d…ccc8backed No72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf002…6221backed No71c68.97$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ff…c3bfbacked Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47b7…c5babacked Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf385…4864backed No69c52$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.121060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb54c…61b0backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf065…c418backed No73c40.03$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.71553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c3d…c0cabacked Yes35c35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.25250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3aa…bddcbacked No68c21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.814344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.42611.5%3 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-80.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x501f…f746backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.