Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x289e98b6fb7af1a4ecc99951d570c72c3364629c1ccf20fbd06d6541ebe3911c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 22c | 27,118$6,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,013.46 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 25c | 14,986$3,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,767.26 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 16c | 7,105$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.79 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 12c | 6,771$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.29 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed No | 75c | 4,521$3,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.66 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 24c | 4,500$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.42 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 29c | 2,515$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.81 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +159%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c21…adafbacked Yes | 6c | 2,418$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 23c | 2,271$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.66 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 23c | 1,877$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 26c | 1,350$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed No | 75c | 1,300$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.59 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 24c | 1,273$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.53 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a403backed No | 75c | 1,063$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.06 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 6c | 902.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 10c | 815.68$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6841…23bebacked Yes | 26c | 812.36$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 7c | 698$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 27c | 693.44$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.58 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 24c | 625.96$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.33 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…c5babacked Yes | 10c | 619.64$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…f308backed Yes | 26c | 618$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked No | 73c | 600$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ac…7935backed Yes | 11c | 538.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 489$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.78 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 7c | 428.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 408.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x625c…61d1backed Yes | 11c | 367.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 321$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed Yes | 13c | 303.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 6c | 295.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 30c | 289.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 7c | 273.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…f6e8backed Yes | 21c | 238.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 75c | 215.66$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 31c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd7…2c89backed No | 70c | 184.21$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…339fbacked No | 70c | 180$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +118%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…320ebacked Yes | 13c | 151.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe24c…e9fabacked Yes | 8c | 146.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed No | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d0…4843backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7c…2229backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d69…becebacked Yes | 27c | 92.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda78…e9c1backed No | 78c | 78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed No | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…b2f6backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 25c | 58.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 71c | 39.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed No | 75c | 37.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40f3…715cbacked No | 75c | 28.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7b…1873backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in May?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% or less in May?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in May?Yes won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.