Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffeb171eb93b83e830c967453462c69bb484134c1530dde0f88552e26150ac3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65b5…a403backed Yes | 12c | 16,534$2,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010.68 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 15c | 14,010$2,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,082.6 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 12c | 9,845$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 15c | 5,507$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.51 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 14c | 5,429$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.82 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 14c | 5,209$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.91 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 16c | 5,069$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.31 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…3fa1backed Yes | 16c | 4,117$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 14c | 3,250$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.77 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 16c | 3,140$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.76 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb381…98f8backed Yes | 16c | 3,038$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 2,723$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.65 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…070ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,898$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.17 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…339fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,470$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +118%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 1,193$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.66 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7924…9364backed Yes | 20c | 1,127$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 13c | 1,090$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.93 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 1,027$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb525…705bbacked Yes | 13c | 999.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 10c | 999.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…4250backed Yes | 15c | 943.53$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ea…d556backed Yes | 14c | 841.44$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.41 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 9c | 750.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…195dbacked Yes | 14c | 700$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31f…819bbacked Yes | 10c | 629$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40f3…715cbacked Yes | 11c | 612.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b63…4b44backed Yes | 16c | 550.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00cd…134fbacked Yes | 15c | 540.65$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 13c | 500$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked Yes | 15c | 499.96$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…1b45backed Yes | 14c | 460.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…c5babacked Yes | 11c | 455.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 13c | 426.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16be…23d9backed Yes | 21c | 351.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 13c | 302.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 11c | 294.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 13c | 285.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 272.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6306…852abacked Yes | 19c | 262.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e3…ec56backed Yes | 16c | 259$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…a632backed Yes | 22c | 225.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…daf5backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6d…4a81backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd7…2c89backed Yes | 14c | 190.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…3700backed Yes | 13c | 170.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 21c | 170$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3a…0216backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07a…98f7backed Yes | 16c | 125.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 13c | 123$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 11c | 109.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 13c | 99.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24c…e9fabacked Yes | 14c | 78.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b08…8581backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in May?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% or less in May?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in May?Yes won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in May?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.