Champions League · resolved market
Will Benfica vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78e9daf74531b98a3d9c264e0c210219df85c8113614a1bfb59c4a18533a4712
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 29c | 6,000$1,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750.82 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 71c | 3,000$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 29c | 2,458$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.92 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f137backed Yes | 32c | 2,377$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 70c | 1,966$1,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.77 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 72c | 1,892$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.76 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 76c | 1,700$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.77 | 204 | 62.3%127 W · 77 L | +19.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Yes | 16c | 1,665$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.52 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 72c | 1,518$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.04 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 76c | 1,502$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.35 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 71c | 668$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.08 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 19c | 600.08$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.15 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…e5b2backed Yes | 28c | 598.62$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ef…b4d9backed Yes | 32c | 575.31$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 31c | 483.65$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.93 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 71c | 407$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.03 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 29c | 350.04$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.81 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 79c | 293.33$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Yes | 32c | 284.57$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…0a3ebacked Yes | 47c | 283.01$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.94 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…83c4backed No | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6d…c504backed Yes | 28c | 267.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 53c | 251.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.19 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61cf…3c52backed Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 71c | 204$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d5…ac1ebacked Yes | 36c | 181.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 70c | 180$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 71c | 167$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…f5ffbacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…ff2abacked Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 28c | 128.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 72c | 117$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed Yes | 29c | 112$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8c…b6b1backed Yes | 34c | 111.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe91d…c4c8backed Yes | 48c | 104.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +159.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…f920backed Yes | 29c | 104.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d7…c74dbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…795bbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaa…82a3backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked No | 72c | 92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f9…6d62backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 264 | 43.9%116 W · 148 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8e…d191backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 66c | 67.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 160 | 36.9%59 W · 101 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef0…657ebacked No | 71c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8965…fda0backed Yes | 30c | 64.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 33c | 59.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 54.7%70 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…9383backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 71c | 50.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 283 | 57.2%162 W · 121 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 149 | 55%82 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…0a90backed Yes | 29c | 48.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 30c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…ca96backed No | 71c | 36.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1711…3643backed Yes | 33c | 34.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 71c | 34.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…587bbacked No | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…f0abbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked No | 69c | 18.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benfica vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayern Munich beat Benfica?No won
- Will Benfica beat Bayern Munich?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.