TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,405,149
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,244,986

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,405,149 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 659 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f47…af93backed Yes6c56,240$3,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,490.737437.8%28 W · 46 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764a…46a7backed Yes5c54,077$2,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,794250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+543.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed No8c45,654$3,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,174.569917.2%17 W · 82 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed No10c37,879$3,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,908.9931947.6%152 W · 167 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c24…c861backed Yes15c28,267$4,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,140.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecc2…1c35backed Yes8c25,168$2,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,003.03333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a0…6368backed Yes18c24,584$4,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,442.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes66c23,349$15,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,462.621060%6 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6843…fedcbacked Yes37c21,142$7,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,775.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+284.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bf5…7a6abacked Yes55c20,081$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1596…9c26backed No17c18,886$3,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,673.882100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+560.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd922…2e79backed Yes15c15,963$2,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,355.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb208…d98bbacked Yes5c14,565$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.63425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-62.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee6e…807cbacked Yes66c11,590$7,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,600.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid+305.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No9c11,157$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,207.5420819.2%40 W · 168 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c92…1b05backed Yes9c10,973$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes62c10,607$6,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,589.8225329.2%74 W · 179 L+11.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd80…f516backed Yes6c10,001$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eb6…27f1backed Yes70c8,975$6,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,294.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc114…b978backed Yes5c8,743$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b1c…3c5cbacked No17c8,411$1,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,975.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+485.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d53…bac1backed Yes26c8,301$2,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,173.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0b…d643backed Yes16c7,900$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9052…87ecbacked Yes76c7,507$5,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,716450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff2a…5900backed Yes9c7,475$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.88616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-75.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…fa87backed Yes8c7,232$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes13c7,107$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.944852.1%25 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes4c6,659$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.851330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ce5…648cbacked Yes22c6,630$1,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,426.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dee…615fbacked Yes4c6,013$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x169b…c646backed Yes15c5,948$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ceb…ca88backed No15c5,723$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,877.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+576.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49bb…650abacked Yes8c5,129$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aa3…64e9backed Yes10c5,080$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.865054%27 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54ab…e8f6backed Yes10c4,738$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe89f…b775backed Yes8c4,645$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…b193backed Yes14c4,575$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7477…9d96backed No9c4,546$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,145.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,244.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b50…9ae5backed Yes7c4,496$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf78b…c5dcbacked Yes69c4,295$2,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,957.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes6c4,187$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b48…9e7abacked Yes25c4,178$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd58b…7febbacked Yes6c4,048$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes21c3,982$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8509238%35 W · 57 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c6…dd74backed Yes6c3,848$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes6c3,710$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfa…d143backed Yes8c3,683$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.672433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x71e1…0a85backed Yes9c3,579$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd565…3f5abacked Yes7c3,520$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61cf…3c52backed Yes6c3,386$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes12c3,317$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe1c5…d5a0backed Yes29c3,285$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.52475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+71.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa117…1aa9backed Yes63c3,166$2,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,006.671136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38d6…f4e9backed Yes65c3,110$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,025.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95a3…046ebacked Yes13c3,076$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd765…55e4backed Yes16c3,064$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c0…de1cbacked Yes79c3,000$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,36010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b11…8535backed Yes5c2,889$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24f8…0841backed Yes5c2,808$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9120…f04bbacked Yes19c2,798$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x851b…1b79backed Yes12c2,798$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.0490%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Yes8c2,791$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.21118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-75.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2769…62b8backed Yes7c2,705$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.4440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc991…7fa4backed Yes19c2,651$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x590e…fdfcbacked Yes16c2,628$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed No9c2,618$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,378.232330.4%7 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7fd…4294backed No8c2,608$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,398.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,150%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f1f…59dfbacked Yes5c2,600$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7975…d3f7backed Yes11c2,550$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.11353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a9…48b9backed Yes11c2,544$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes42c2,497$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.943026.7%8 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f6…51efbacked Yes8c2,444$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e5a…563dbacked Yes8c2,438$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.27425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfab8…0f9bbacked Yes8c2,398$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dca…99c8backed No14c2,249$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,944.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+269.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1084…0dadbacked No9c2,222$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,022.22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick5cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2835…a1aabacked Yes4c2,200$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4031…5543backed Yes12c2,126$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50f7…3ce2backed Yes20c2,063$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes9c2,055$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.141618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca90…3094backed Yes4c2,045$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf72c…f818backed Yes5c2,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+62.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…a15abacked Yes10c1,985$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fd0…eb9dbacked Yes4c1,843$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.371030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44d8…9574backed Yes9c1,800$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bf0…8fcabacked Yes12c1,759$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xad89…fe86backed Yes8c1,749$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.86616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f22…435dbacked Yes6c1,674$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4d4…4fbebacked Yes5c1,658$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes8c1,617$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.438646.5%40 W · 46 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x01f0…f002backed Yes16c1,613$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdfe…30afbacked Yes6c1,611$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe483…b5a0backed Yes37c1,601$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaab…d94bbacked Yes14c1,596$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bbd…9ec2backed Yes12c1,594$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.82633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+168.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a45…4a71backed Yes7c1,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c43…b289backed Yes4c1,500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6512149.6%60 W · 61 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+95.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes22c1,419$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.8966031.2%206 W · 454 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes68c1,417$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb27d…fc9cbacked Yes69c1,402$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.441283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick72cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.