Premier League · resolved market
Will Erling Haaland win the Ballon d’Or?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2e394a1de9526e577c37f69ce0a45046e1a907d2dc61f2313bb019ed865215b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $621,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $365,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $621,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 0c | 143,644$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.59 | 208 | 19.2%40 W · 168 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f5…4e56backed Yes | 0c | 38,459$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0696…4f8cbacked Yes | 1c | 29,948$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 28,946$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 99 | 17.2%17 W · 82 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afe…4504backed Yes | 1c | 20,748$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x863d…8399backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 2cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3d…e2afbacked Yes | 0c | 16,596$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 1c | 16,179$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.33 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bcfabacked Yes | 0c | 16,156$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…1f8dbacked Yes | 1c | 13,880$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +241.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb6…03d1backed Yes | 1c | 8,398$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2769…62b8backed Yes | 0c | 7,214$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…3fdebacked Yes | 1c | 7,119$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 1c | 6,944$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1601…ed94backed Yes | 1c | 5,708$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +303.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…6ad1backed Yes | 1c | 5,636$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa71e…dd2fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,594$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 0c | 4,749$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 2c | 4,384$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…fb74backed Yes | 1c | 3,883$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +208%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x992e…7abcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,357$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…c78cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,868$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 2cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…c72dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,550$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…dbf2backed Yes | 2c | 2,178$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a6…7f0bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,111$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…7f4cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…1b79backed Yes | 1c | 1,984$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 1c | 1,855$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3441…2155backed Yes | 1c | 1,680$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3921…03cdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,667$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f9…0810backed Yes | 1c | 1,595$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…5922backed Yes | 1c | 1,431$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…1bb2backed Yes | 2c | 1,306$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…fdb0backed Yes | 1c | 1,030$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…9132backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9e…1256backed Yes | 2c | 991.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…c597backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Erling Haaland win the Ballon d’Or?this page
- Will Dani Carvajal win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Harry Kane win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Jude Bellingham win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Kylian Mbappe win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Lamine Yamal win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Lionel Messi win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Nico Williams win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Phil Foden win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or?Yes won
- Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or?No won
- Will another player win the Ballon d'Or?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.