TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Kylian Mbappe win the Ballon d’Or?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,193,237
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$265,668

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,193,237 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c194,486$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.8520819.2%40 W · 168 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a45…4a71backed Yes0c100,651$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c85,654$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.659917.2%17 W · 82 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c61,641$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.64372.7%1 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-80.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765d…8efbbacked Yes0c51,875$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa127…7ff9backed Yes0c50,497$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0151…7057backed Yes0c50,495$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0af5…45e2backed Yes0c50,495$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee93…9f75backed Yes0c50,494$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x868d…678dbacked Yes0c50,494$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9506…c6c7backed Yes0c50,494$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd84…5719backed Yes0c50,494$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf0…b610backed Yes0c49,207$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8325…4510backed Yes0c46,836$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2512…7b0dbacked Yes0c46,527$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x921c…53f5backed Yes0c46,527$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec05…f3a6backed Yes0c46,527$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ad6…f400backed Yes0c46,527$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20e3…5561backed Yes0c44,499$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75c…a38cbacked Yes0c44,499$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8b2…7c1cbacked Yes0c44,427$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc373…3efabacked Yes0c44,425$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c5d…2fafbacked Yes0c40,580$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3db3…3233backed Yes0c40,459$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f5…2c95backed Yes0c39,721$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2314…f68abacked Yes0c38,669$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c0…32edbacked Yes0c37,500$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf74…0fcabacked Yes0c36,263$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5380%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2861…fa18backed Yes0c34,817$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9a5…8ce6backed Yes0c34,576$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x269d…885dbacked Yes0c28,370$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7023…1fe5backed Yes0c27,726$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c9…edbdbacked Yes0c27,726$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa326…1b16backed Yes0c27,726$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5482…01e2backed Yes0c26,405$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39bf…d0d5backed Yes0c26,000$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebb2…8fbfbacked Yes0c23,610$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes0c18,065$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.795712.3%7 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-39.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xedee…6a7fbacked Yes0c17,408$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfbf…be24backed Yes0c17,408$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf63…2832backed Yes0c17,408$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdef8…b2b2backed Yes0c17,408$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0298…e280backed Yes0c17,408$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6782…655dbacked Yes0c17,408$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f37…64a9backed Yes0c17,408$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f6…c281backed Yes0c17,408$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6337…61ffbacked Yes0c17,408$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3783…1a00backed Yes0c17,408$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d7e…540bbacked Yes0c17,408$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89f5…e4d5backed Yes0c17,408$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8b…77f1backed Yes0c16,913$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d9f…1da3backed Yes0c16,632$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b73…3ee2backed Yes0c16,440$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f95…3fedbacked Yes0c16,094$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x618a…882dbacked Yes0c16,079$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8814…cdf1backed Yes0c15,932$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4827…3f05backed Yes0c15,900$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fce…ae07backed Yes0c15,867$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e49…0f80backed Yes0c15,846$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2ad…078dbacked Yes0c15,769$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ea9…dc08backed Yes0c15,763$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe165…cf6ebacked Yes0c15,732$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9904…3d40backed Yes0c15,683$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91bc…0987backed Yes0c15,579$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c37…0447backed Yes0c15,495$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8694…9feebacked Yes0c15,413$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x834e…8065backed Yes0c15,394$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e50…da05backed Yes0c15,341$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ccf…28e8backed Yes0c15,339$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e9…c97bbacked Yes0c15,298$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc13b…37c9backed Yes0c15,188$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9e0…9dc0backed Yes0c15,080$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa08b…ed33backed Yes0c15,054$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0494…87a7backed Yes0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc066…635abacked Yes0c14,900$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c14,486$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5003…573fbacked Yes0c13,381$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb53c…6683backed Yes0c13,229$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4e1…f9c4backed Yes0c12,627$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x120e…3ab8backed Yes0c12,604$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf90e…190bbacked Yes0c12,565$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23b7…d191backed Yes0c12,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4737…d20fbacked Yes0c12,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e54…d32fbacked Yes0c12,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89d4…2bd8backed Yes0c12,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc40…7fc9backed Yes0c12,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad6…0f64backed Yes0c12,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x890c…8954backed Yes0c12,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6221…61eabacked Yes0c12,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d5c…f5fdbacked Yes0c12,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb9d…3998backed Yes0c12,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0871…037ebacked Yes0c11,758$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f11…8d80backed Yes0c11,614$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3d…e2afbacked Yes0c11,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e05…accabacked Yes0c11,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x388a…4002backed Yes0c11,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7509…1cd2backed Yes0c11,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2256…9a29backed Yes0c11,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x729d…5ef2backed Yes0c10,738$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42ed…d13dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.