Premier League · resolved market
Will Lamine Yamal win the Ballon d’Or?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa67333de9efa77277fd6c80375e99611a40715bd614f7b771843a18d93cb07bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,034,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $553,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,034,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 0c | 196,082$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.48 | 208 | 19.2%40 W · 168 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2737…cd40backed Yes | 1c | 110,293$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 59,878$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 99 | 17.2%17 W · 82 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…4a71backed Yes | 1c | 47,985$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…b87dbacked Yes | 0c | 37,983$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…ce4ebacked Yes | 0c | 30,938$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 1c | 27,957$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.66 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 0c | 26,339$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd515…14febacked Yes | 0c | 25,889$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2b…7e31backed Yes | 0c | 25,108$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2769…62b8backed Yes | 0c | 21,018$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 13,530$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…cb11backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 2cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…1b79backed Yes | 1c | 9,478$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.67 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b14…d18cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,925$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…c78cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,175$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 2cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…dbf2backed Yes | 1c | 4,370$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…b3b7backed Yes | 3c | 3,750$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 0c | 3,719$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…0a85backed Yes | 1c | 3,225$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243b…64f2backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,685$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…5aedbacked Yes | 2c | 2,679$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…fecdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,505$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95c6…db39backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7d…2112backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a7…f741backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6126…87eebacked Yes | 0c | 2,448$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,032$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…0dadbacked Yes | 6c | 204.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lamine Yamal win the Ballon d’Or?this page
- Will Erling Haaland win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Dani Carvajal win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Harry Kane win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Jude Bellingham win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Kylian Mbappe win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Lionel Messi win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Nico Williams win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Phil Foden win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or?Yes won
- Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or?No won
- Will another player win the Ballon d'Or?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.