Premier League · resolved market
Will Jude Bellingham win the Ballon d’Or?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fd751ba3f83e2db3174510d95396f41bcb38e23733c0a704c8e066338b8b0da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $603,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $281,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $603,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 135,058$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.6 | 208 | 19.2%40 W · 168 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 1c | 41,258$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.74 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f8…83cbbacked Yes | 0c | 32,843$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2769…62b8backed Yes | 0c | 32,386$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…4a71backed Yes | 1c | 21,210$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x863d…8399backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 2cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…dbf2backed Yes | 5c | 9,703$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 9,471$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.94 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 9,399$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.01 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…228abacked Yes | 1c | 8,811$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 8,136$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 4c | 8,105$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.95 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6048…8513backed Yes | 4c | 8,051$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +206.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ac…3db9backed Yes | 2c | 8,043$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…b3b7backed Yes | 1c | 6,544$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…1b79backed Yes | 1c | 6,522$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.24 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0e…f253backed Yes | 0c | 6,166$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6c…78c8backed Yes | 5c | 6,050$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…1d79backed Yes | 1c | 5,600$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…fdb0backed Yes | 0c | 5,210$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 3c | 4,984$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa117…1aa9backed Yes | 4c | 4,798$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3669…5c53backed Yes | 0c | 4,533$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 3cpaid | +376.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…fa87backed Yes | 1c | 4,244$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…c78cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,982$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 2cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 0c | 3,504$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…1579backed Yes | 1c | 3,488$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…0dadbacked Yes | 1c | 3,276$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 4c | 3,175$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…cb11backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 2cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…a9efbacked Yes | 2c | 2,995$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…069bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,976$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +350.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42ed…d13dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,469$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…8a3cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,107$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1601…ed94backed Yes | 1c | 2,100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +303.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…bbb7backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…c560backed Yes | 1c | 1,982$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x992e…7abcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,929$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f2…cfa0backed Yes | 6c | 1,674$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…ed7cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9e…1256backed Yes | 4c | 1,416$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Yes | 5c | 1,401$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11c7…a220backed Yes | 2c | 1,372$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…bc2bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,348$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,330$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…d829backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…584bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,215$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d5…6ddebacked Yes | 2c | 1,182$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +143.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd5…87fdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2119…50a2backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda7e…15bfbacked Yes | 2c | 906.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 3c | 877.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes | 4c | 750$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b65…3fabbacked Yes | 4c | 653.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…1bb2backed Yes | 4c | 625$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 3c | 568.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3067…d0e5backed Yes | 2c | 492.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed Yes | 4c | 450$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7a…15ecbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…7abdbacked Yes | 4c | 374.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…2aeebacked Yes | 3c | 320$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked Yes | 4c | 279.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x278a…cd11backed Yes | 5c | 270$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5936…764bbacked Yes | 4c | 238.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jude Bellingham win the Ballon d’Or?this page
- Will Erling Haaland win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Dani Carvajal win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Harry Kane win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Kylian Mbappe win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Lamine Yamal win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Lionel Messi win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Nico Williams win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Phil Foden win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or?Yes won
- Will Toni Kroos win the Ballon d’Or?No won
- Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or?No won
- Will another player win the Ballon d'Or?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.