TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$238,571

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,571 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 263 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked No77c9,309$7,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,137.03728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf041…dde5backed No54c8,793$4,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,051.951050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Yes66c7,864$5,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.387451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes2c5,000$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.892944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc452…7234backed Yes51c4,816$2,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,474.35425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1414…18fcbacked Yes1c4,044$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a15…68abbacked No51c3,606$1,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,763.73812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-75.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes27c3,481$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.3625337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes78c3,339$2,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,619.912133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid+28.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x115d…04fabacked Yes0c3,296$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.871127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e41…3745backed Yes49c3,257$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88d9…fdd5backed No52c3,187$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,543.311741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes16c2,920$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.0111349.6%56 W · 57 L+28.4wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+106.5%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0xdaf3…4968backed Yes71c2,792$1,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,996.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-53.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3d3…66ffbacked No64c2,771$1,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.37714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-77.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes3c2,559$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.399850%49 W · 49 L+16.1wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+40.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x0e7f…8605backed Yes0c2,196$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b2e…6306backed Yes57c2,169$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,242.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf107…b9babacked Yes32c2,028$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.433928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa76b…c054backed No28c2,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4401100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce71…83bcbacked Yes70c1,925$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.842528%7 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b5c…6276backed Yes24c1,719$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42070%0 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7523…4c4cbacked Yes2c1,640$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.991040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes23c1,563$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.4714027.9%39 W · 101 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes34c1,409$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.851625%4 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed No20c1,302$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.383740.5%15 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+67.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x55f3…cadabacked Yes45c1,234$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.711060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No18c1,128$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.757526.7%20 W · 55 L+9.2wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+63.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdb02…561bbacked No62c1,098$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No59c1,086$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.0410652.8%56 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a29…ff3bbacked Yes40c1,073$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21a5…014bbacked Yes65c1,060$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa756…d2babacked Yes7c1,047$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes47c989$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.193925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-43.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd61…0002backed No25c973.1$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.43728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5f6…adc3backed Yes12c907.85$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.61060%6 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+63%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9363…52cabacked Yes7c850$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625135.3%18 W · 33 L+12.4wins+0.24per pick11cpaid+385.3%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No53c842.69$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.7511435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb8a…0ca8backed Yes29c800.16$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab07…9f5bbacked Yes72c795.5$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.0830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a6…77bcbacked Yes74c774.87$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes31c727.34$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.119742.6%84 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x529d…6381backed Yes5c727.26$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.923046.7%14 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d35…2be5backed No80c626.37$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.372100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No42c609.01$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.8537117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25f6…ab43backed Yes67c588.75$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes60c580.78$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.722035%7 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No46c549.76$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.5615446.8%72 W · 82 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc56b…0e6dbacked Yes46c537.15$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.62616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-78.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21b9…aa4fbacked Yes33c514.32$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x524c…4664backed Yes50c501.4$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f42…e44ebacked Yes77c500$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.14728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa309…516dbacked Yes70c499.04$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.69922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+89.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Yes31c492.46$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.54110%0 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No48c480.6$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.6618246.2%84 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x179d…e18bbacked Yes4c452.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-65.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2cb…572fbacked Yes71c423.52$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…422cbacked No30c421$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce8a…2fbabacked Yes47c408.35$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c3…cb75backed Yes7c403.29$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78bd…300dbacked Yes6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc906…8b3ebacked Yes49c399.41$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7065…e0c3backed No30c370$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes36c343.25$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.237919%15 W · 64 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes23c336.09$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.374812.5%6 W · 42 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x523f…d6ecbacked Yes69c333.44$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Yes54c320$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.62420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbad7…03d8backed Yes65c306.39$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb99a…1300backed No36c299.11$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1921100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+179.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a6b…4141backed No34c297.34$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.34520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No57c293.37$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.491080%8 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+48.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8680…a628backed No44c292.9$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.45520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes69c289.41$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007027.1%19 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0c8…e944backed Yes26c288.35$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.16540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe91d…c4c8backed Yes30c280$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.74520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-61.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4b…a53ebacked Yes72c277.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7a6…429abacked Yes69c274$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked Yes50c267.73$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3412556.8%71 W · 54 L+12.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes44c260$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5916343.6%71 W · 92 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d13…082cbacked Yes69c250$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.56035%21 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes60c250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010038%38 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…c63cbacked No34c246.88$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+193.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x754d…6741backed Yes46c246$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.691233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6bf…6a05backed No30c246$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Yes66c240.21$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.04837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2faf…d59dbacked No71c239.84$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.241250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e6a…39aabacked Yes70c238$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe74…b9f1backed Yes51c234$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9462…1f7ebacked Yes70c233$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No42c232.52$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.214250%71 W · 71 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bb4…692abacked No36c227.9$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.321060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x797b…ce2bbacked No44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.27560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed Yes21c226.89$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.884542.2%19 W · 26 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc723…c564backed No30c223$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x299a…8606backed Yes70c221$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ae7…3de1backed No30c219$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x66f0…7debbacked No30c219$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick15cpaid+331.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c77…ee67backed No30c218$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.6425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf54…2d2fbacked No30c218$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+992.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.