TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% or less in April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$610,442
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$628,547

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $610,442 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8921…fbd0backed No69c53,712$37,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,061.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6086…c78abacked Yes31c53,712$16,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,061.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3e4…6d84backed No58c40,035$23,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,220.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick64cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fed…89cbbacked Yes42c40,035$16,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,220.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1f…842cbacked Yes44c33,422$14,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,717.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea07…5ee8backed No56c33,422$18,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,716.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc139…2fabbacked No55c33,144$18,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,229.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f97…555fbacked Yes45c33,144$14,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,229.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc620…070fbacked No66c32,321$21,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,331.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc34…8b32backed Yes34c32,321$10,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,331.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6e3…a24bbacked No59c28,347$16,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,724.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9c0…2f5ebacked Yes41c28,347$11,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,724.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f54…99d8backed No48c27,565$13,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,231.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb2c…20c3backed Yes52c27,565$14,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,231.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65b5…a403backed Yes43c14,549$6,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,272.012630.8%8 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick22cpaid-22.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed No59c8,249$4,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,835.8312820.3%26 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No56c7,480$4,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,189.176023.3%14 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+80.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No54c6,859$3,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,733.6512049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes42c6,363$2,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,678.8522433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb671…3c14backed Yes47c4,510$2,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,390.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No56c4,319$2,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,432.0623330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No59c4,105$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,424.6819931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes42c4,072$1,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,371.618636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc56b…0e6dbacked Yes38c3,958$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,442.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+33.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes4c3,406$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,270.091435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick20cpaid+182.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes41c2,723$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,612.671526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3654…339fbacked Yes18c2,620$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,139.12862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.29per pick33cpaid+118%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2684…d3d6backed Yes39c1,209$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.462630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6147…d34ebacked Yes47c1,187$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.032540%10 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No55c1,147$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.49966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+80.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes37c1,083$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd41…8ebbbacked No56c999.95$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x404f…561dbacked Yes49c953.93$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.931816.7%3 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-54%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x262f…5b06backed Yes43c920.83$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+130.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x875e…29bdbacked Yes71c910.58$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e3…ec56backed Yes46c794.23$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.74425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-45.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cb…cf85backed Yes33c733.16$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+199.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes37c638.23$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.8817528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No59c630.56$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.526532.3%21 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a10…8b30backed No51c569.08$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes45c562.08$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda78…e9c1backed No54c555.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.821540%6 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed No48c550$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No51c550$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.7511039.1%43 W · 67 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+115.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes48c510.33$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.311154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c09…a632backed Yes40c500$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3021330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdd9…32d5backed Yes51c495$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd7…2c89backed Yes38c479.85$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.85837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe91d…c4c8backed Yes41c450$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b86…53d7backed Yes44c424.96$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+124.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes34c410.03$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.712623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid+11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b63…4b44backed Yes48c401.38$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.843231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No55c383.98$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.0415148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No57c372.58$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.922070%14 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+27.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No51c371$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.931241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-37.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3d2…f38bbacked Yes37c353.61$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa44c…eb34backed Yes45c353$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.39520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-55.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes33c350$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.53016.7%5 W · 25 L-6.5wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-65.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa91f…5a64backed Yes45c349.94$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+120%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No10c345.04$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x978b…7e07backed No55c330.91$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes58c330$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.6677.5%5 W · 62 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No58c328.32$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.719144%40 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x45a1…d31fbacked No52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156150%0 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5770…bafcbacked No55c290$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.830%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes49c282.38$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.644854.2%26 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa991…6ce4backed Yes40c274.02$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+152.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4732…2f88backed Yes37c270$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+156.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7994…c8c3backed Yes37c269.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No55c260$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.954744.7%21 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf422…6743backed Yes59c253.04$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd306…d705backed Yes42c240.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+140.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc8d…5232backed Yes43c234$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.381346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes44c226.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.782100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+154%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6841…23bebacked Yes34c220.59$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.59333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes44c214.3$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x24db…7067backed Yes42c213.41$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.792100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+90.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes45c205.17$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.932138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c204.08$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.3320242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4c8…2102backed Yes50c202$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked Yes47c200.1$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.261741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed No59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes47c197$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.839024.4%22 W · 68 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a0a…db49backed Yes41c171.17$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.41442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb008…5d6bbacked Yes60c166$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.19366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed No64c157.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes36c150$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-21.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes51c149.99$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.49650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44a7…349fbacked No58c139.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2544…f24ebacked Yes32c134.72$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+210.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fc1…6362backed Yes32c130$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.71per pick30cpaid+241.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc047…fecbbacked Yes36c128.39$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+40.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed No48c126$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.271861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+0.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb31f…819bbacked Yes32c125.95$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.21650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+102.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f7e…8a48backed Yes57c125$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab8c…bfefbacked Yes46c124.91$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.761020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-58.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d3…4356backed No50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8d7…6977backed Yes40c120$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd714…f01cbacked Yes46c114.57$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87cd…6f2abacked No60c110.01$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.511861.1%11 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.