Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53f8d98d09f37ef49c0e26c1a9e74432b4093bafa1b204f51c724e13cef20459
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $249,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $247,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $249,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5a0…2265backed Yes | 32c | 49,544$15,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,853.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb3…17cdbacked No | 68c | 49,444$33,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,822.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…a20ebacked Yes | 37c | 33,409$12,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,361.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fb…3561backed No | 63c | 33,409$21,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,361.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…974cbacked Yes | 57c | 27,041$15,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,413.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…5487backed No | 43c | 27,041$11,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,413.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 36c | 4,868$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,730.09 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 34c | 2,200$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.08 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 26c | 2,133$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.3 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 32c | 1,799$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.71 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 1,283$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.13 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,050$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.84 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 39c | 900.95$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.31 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e2…6a84backed Yes | 51c | 823.87$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 68c | 660$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.62 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 5c | 618.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Yes | 36c | 569.1$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 63c | 496$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.85 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…bfefbacked Yes | 31c | 480.42$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88a…ce8ebacked No | 72c | 452.85$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 35c | 400$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d7…6977backed Yes | 57c | 384.17$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 377.09$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.69 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa44c…eb34backed Yes | 28c | 353$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d2…f38bbacked Yes | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b63…4b44backed Yes | 35c | 224.28$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 209$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…7067backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 43c | 200$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…8b30backed Yes | 30c | 190$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 33c | 177.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 33c | 153.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 57c | 151.54$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Yes | 33c | 151$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 64c | 130.91$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 33c | 125$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a7…349fbacked No | 64c | 118.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d3…4356backed Yes | 36c | 102$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 39c | 86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…8814backed Yes | 55c | 85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked Yes | 36c | 82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3955…7f3dbacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 76.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa007…2bd4backed Yes | 38c | 66.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8951…0394backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 48c | 52.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 50.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0559…4506backed Yes | 41c | 48.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 65c | 47.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0a…db49backed Yes | 37c | 47.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc047…fecbbacked Yes | 55c | 43.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…c5babacked Yes | 41c | 36.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…b8fabacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa477…8580backed Yes | 49c | 34.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f7…dd31backed No | 53c | 34.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 47c | 32.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 68c | 31.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa375…daabbacked No | 53c | 30.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506d…ab03backed Yes | 49c | 29.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91cf…54bfbacked No | 72c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe9…0610backed Yes | 42c | 26.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…95fcbacked No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 55c | 22.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in April?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% or less in April?Yes won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in April?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or more in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.