Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ba8b0bef6b95c440f4d771ac7f22ab0a557895117402cdb110b80ea5a687ac9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 16c | 3,596$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.98 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 23c | 3,001$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.3 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe810…8fc5backed Yes | 15c | 2,706$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 2,301$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.08 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,440$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 17c | 1,400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.7 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 11c | 1,188$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.62 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 17c | 1,030$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.29 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 13c | 949$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.11 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked Yes | 19c | 700$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.28 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 11c | 517.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 27c | 500$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Yes | 21c | 476$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44c…eb34backed Yes | 15c | 353$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 12c | 348.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 12c | 347.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 13c | 320.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 314$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf265…2c63backed Yes | 15c | 234.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 224.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 175.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 171.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 22c | 157.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…bfefbacked Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 14c | 145$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 80c | 140$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 121.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 16c | 108.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…9ce5backed Yes | 17c | 98.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x753b…ebcfbacked Yes | 16c | 93.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 15c | 86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa007…2bd4backed Yes | 20c | 66.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ea…a83dbacked No | 80c | 45.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in April?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% or less in April?Yes won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in April?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or more in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.