TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$659,463
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$647,172

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $659,463 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 386 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x36c0…67d5backed Yes22c79,344$17,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,888.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde0d…469abacked Yes23c76,086$17,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,586.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb163…b3c5backed No78c22,106$17,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,242.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48c4…60f3backed No78c21,339$16,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,644.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa550…74bfbacked No77c21,253$16,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,364.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc428…7093backed No77c20,515$15,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,796.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x449e…d73bbacked No77c20,324$15,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,649.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No1c20,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedff…b037backed No78c18,578$14,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,490.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x041f…fd1bbacked No78c17,321$13,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,510.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28df…16debacked No77c13,994$10,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,775.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ed0…8112backed Yes22c13,250$2,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,3351100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1144…99f1backed No0c12,530$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed No0c9,600$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No0c8,888$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.22450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No69c7,858$5,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,385.657537.3%28 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x05df…882dbacked No1c7,042$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed No0c6,698$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.681833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No0c5,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12130%0 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No1c4,539$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.21313.2%1 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Yes44c3,679$1,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,071.251656.3%9 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+3.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No68c3,653$2,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,487.093828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73c9…8b7dbacked No78c3,650$2,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,84710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes35c3,518$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,280.572245.5%10 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+118.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x362b…3859backed No78c3,500$2,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,73010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes30c3,441$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,418.381735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked No0c3,333$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+121.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x434f…8451backed No78c3,300$2,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,57410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes19c2,967$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,406.482828.6%8 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61c1…70d8backed Yes52c2,939$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9619…b939backed No78c2,800$2,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,18410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3112…09a8backed No80c2,789$2,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,218.941060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78a1…e6bdbacked No11c2,669$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x708d…ea78backed No1c2,645$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.05666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.38per pick29cpaid+168.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7562…2ec5backed Yes55c2,517$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff99…5602backed Yes24c2,479$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.13100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+164.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No72c2,400$1,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7194348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67f2…6a72backed No79c2,228$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760.1220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae92…01f5backed No10c2,200$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0262…a9d2backed No7c2,149$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.43633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e77…c4f3backed No56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No33c1,940$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.59425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9363…52cabacked No9c1,900$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed Yes14c1,889$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,627.532236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes23c1,858$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,426.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+138.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Yes34c1,771$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.32540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No11c1,706$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.425121.6%11 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f0…529ebacked Yes21c1,654$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.63757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.40per pick17cpaid+164%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No64c1,534$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.363256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes28c1,436$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.92520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed Yes16c1,423$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes22c1,407$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.46837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+71.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0e3…6677backed No8c1,400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c2…c527backed Yes15c1,356$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick20cpaid+360.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed No73c1,345$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9821656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes30c1,330$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.01825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6989…b412backed No61c1,321$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.641850%9 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3177…cb28backed No10c1,300$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes11c1,279$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.531346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+184.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d03…ef8ebacked Yes22c1,256$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd9c…be4dbacked No39c1,252$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No20c1,250$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250444.5%2 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No77c1,244$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.031145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes26c1,208$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.89933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed Yes22c1,206$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+149.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25d8…644ebacked Yes22c1,203$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.342100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+193.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x557a…9f70backed Yes21c1,183$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf977…aff0backed No72c1,156$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…bf74backed Yes22c1,122$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.16250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+127.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd2…0bd8backed No72c1,105$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.67650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90b6…a1b0backed No61c1,101$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed No78c1,085$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.340%0 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes58c1,074$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed Yes22c1,060$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick18cpaid+127.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked No66c1,037$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.8230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes34c1,029$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.41825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-46.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes41c1,028$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.854845.8%22 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd52b…5c72backed No10c1,021$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed No78c1,012$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.36650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a79…1ccbbacked No75c1,006$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked No49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes17c958.22$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.15633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid+19%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x78ba…f02dbacked No78c912$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38c1…2f84backed Yes22c897$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5a…cfefbacked Yes22c897$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8e0…a63bbacked Yes22c893$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc70…50c0backed Yes18c892$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+443.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabeb…7a78backed Yes21c891$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6ef…095ebacked No72c873$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.5620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaef9…0acbbacked Yes12c870$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x293b…09a9backed No72c849$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcae4…ccecbacked Yes21c843$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes22c835$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd77e…83a4backed Yes28c834$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+83.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes21c819$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick25cpaid+148.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes34c799.66$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.786841.2%28 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x673d…e929backed Yes22c766$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.482100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+283.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ae…8598backed No79c765$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c757.5$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.384839.6%19 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No57c749.99$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.52638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.