TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$762,710
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$782,415

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $762,710 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed Yes5c39,929$2,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,144825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Yes9c19,203$1,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,793.471656.3%9 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+3.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c14,177$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.6330%0 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes2c13,034$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.071827.8%5 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x309e…acbebacked Yes1c12,183$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d94…e7f7backed Yes8c11,443$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8661020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53b2…de8ebacked Yes7c10,273$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes12c10,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-73.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5612…2ac2backed Yes5c9,819$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c9,119$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.78595.1%3 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeae9…bb7abacked Yes3c8,619$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e6…30a2backed Yes7c8,156$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.4740%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes9c7,762$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.064316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf248…72bfbacked Yes14c7,061$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0673…2e81backed Yes5c6,938$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes1c6,367$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.76702.9%2 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes3c5,797$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.64306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes16c5,236$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.64843.8%21 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed02…85f7backed Yes6c4,857$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5601…e1a5backed Yes6c4,648$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes1c4,618$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes11c4,429$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.654126.8%11 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes6c4,240$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.89933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c4,089$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.22444.5%2 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c4,038$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9230%0 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes1c4,012$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582045%9 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+28.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c3,789$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.2614.9%3 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes12c3,551$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.928013.8%11 W · 69 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes1c3,454$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.16714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes5c3,128$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.632638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12313.2%1 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82fb…da0ebacked Yes7c2,952$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4913…4e41backed Yes2c2,945$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes3c2,780$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.63474.3%2 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4490…5e3cbacked Yes7c2,574$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.2550%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c3…9089backed Yes6c2,562$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44a9…62c8backed Yes6c2,536$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde1b…ccc9backed Yes2c2,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501520%3 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-52%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes2c2,303$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.94110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf309…84d6backed Yes6c2,186$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd38d…5895backed Yes10c2,074$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ff5…79c3backed Yes2c2,063$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53d3…ba87backed Yes9c2,000$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14df…30b2backed Yes2c1,900$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03a2…3c7ebacked Yes5c1,828$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes4c1,821$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.48449.1%4 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick4cpaid+50.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0173…db5fbacked Yes6c1,763$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3bf…1c60backed Yes8c1,717$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a0e…9036backed Yes33c1,684$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.31118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-55.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes1c1,540$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0170%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3673…7c89backed Yes11c1,512$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes7c1,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2cc…702dbacked Yes7c1,494$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c1,483$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.691644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe5b…85e1backed Yes8c1,426$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.07520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe747…4f32backed Yes7c1,386$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce8a…90debacked Yes7c1,224$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No76c1,182$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.95742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xece0…7cdfbacked Yes10c1,109$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes10c1,102$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.132714.8%4 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-43.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes25c1,092$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb730…2b61backed Yes5c1,082$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes8c1,082$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.17633.2%2 W · 61 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes7c1,060$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.92326.3%2 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xece2…f453backed Yes6c1,058$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No72c1,000$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.9757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-60.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x429c…5f41backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7078…aeacbacked Yes6c1,000$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e86…6bc9backed Yes6c998.42$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb6a…857abacked Yes2c970.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes4c917.3$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.73120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x627f…8bbebacked Yes2c845.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f58…62a5backed Yes12c784.2$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeabb…8ae3backed Yes3c760.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes5c750$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.25119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-87.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x185c…dee1backed Yes3c746.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cd9…86f3backed Yes7c735.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…942fbacked Yes7c733.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes8c726.45$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583917.9%7 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7166…f815backed No77c722$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes3c717.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes10c710.69$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.351717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick11cpaid-38.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes4c700$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.270%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf93…bdc8backed No80c697.72$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.49450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-33.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a4a…9132backed Yes2c681.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf710…edc9backed Yes4c674.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.322630.8%8 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+5.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes5c637.14$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.04214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-71.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf53e…6c75backed Yes5c632.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+123%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bea…f95abacked Yes6c617.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402020%4 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed Yes7c607.76$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.542917.2%5 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-55.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes6c600$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.61338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+93.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8df…6df7backed Yes7c598.03$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.84616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-77.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed Yes16c584.98$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.331643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes6c580.61$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.281040%4 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+35.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes8c566.49$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.912828.6%8 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c51…f8febacked Yes4c562.48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.32425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a15…7036backed Yes9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick8cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4ae…8370backed Yes9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes10c555$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.391540%6 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-38.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.