Venezuela · resolved market
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00909c9ac8447fed257c0b97de0230626f41f6b0b8772c4dbaa7697e5466536a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $762,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $782,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $762,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 5c | 39,929$2,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,144 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 9c | 19,203$1,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,793.47 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 14,177$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.6 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 2c | 13,034$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.07 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x309e…acbebacked Yes | 1c | 12,183$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d94…e7f7backed Yes | 8c | 11,443$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b2…de8ebacked Yes | 7c | 10,273$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 12c | 10,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5612…2ac2backed Yes | 5c | 9,819$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 9,119$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.78 | 59 | 5.1%3 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae9…bb7abacked Yes | 3c | 8,619$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e6…30a2backed Yes | 7c | 8,156$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 9c | 7,762$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.06 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf248…72bfbacked Yes | 14c | 7,061$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…2e81backed Yes | 5c | 6,938$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 1c | 6,367$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 70 | 2.9%2 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,797$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.64 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 16c | 5,236$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.6 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed02…85f7backed Yes | 6c | 4,857$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5601…e1a5backed Yes | 6c | 4,648$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 1c | 4,618$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 11c | 4,429$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.65 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 6c | 4,240$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,089$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 4,038$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 1c | 4,012$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 3,789$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 3,551$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.92 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 3,454$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 5c | 3,128$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.63 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…da0ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,952$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4913…4e41backed Yes | 2c | 2,945$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 2,780$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.63 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…5e3cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,574$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…9089backed Yes | 6c | 2,562$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a9…62c8backed Yes | 6c | 2,536$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…ccc9backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 2c | 2,303$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf309…84d6backed Yes | 6c | 2,186$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd38d…5895backed Yes | 10c | 2,074$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff5…79c3backed Yes | 2c | 2,063$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14df…30b2backed Yes | 2c | 1,900$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…3c7ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,828$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 1,821$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0173…db5fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,763$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bf…1c60backed Yes | 8c | 1,717$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…9036backed Yes | 33c | 1,684$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,540$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…7c89backed Yes | 11c | 1,512$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cc…702dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,494$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,483$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.69 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…85e1backed Yes | 8c | 1,426$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…4f32backed Yes | 7c | 1,386$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce8a…90debacked Yes | 7c | 1,224$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 76c | 1,182$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…7cdfbacked Yes | 10c | 1,109$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,102$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.13 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes | 25c | 1,092$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb730…2b61backed Yes | 5c | 1,082$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,082$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 63 | 3.2%2 W · 61 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,060$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece2…f453backed Yes | 6c | 1,058$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 72c | 1,000$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7078…aeacbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed Yes | 6c | 998.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6a…857abacked Yes | 2c | 970.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 917.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x627f…8bbebacked Yes | 2c | 845.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f58…62a5backed Yes | 12c | 784.2$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeabb…8ae3backed Yes | 3c | 760.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 5c | 750$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185c…dee1backed Yes | 3c | 746.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…86f3backed Yes | 7c | 735.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…942fbacked Yes | 7c | 733.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 8c | 726.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…f815backed No | 77c | 722$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 3c | 717.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 10c | 710.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed No | 80c | 697.72$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4a…9132backed Yes | 2c | 681.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 4c | 674.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 637.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf53e…6c75backed Yes | 5c | 632.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +123%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 6c | 617.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 7c | 607.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 6c | 600$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…6df7backed Yes | 7c | 598.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 16c | 584.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 6c | 580.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 8c | 566.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c51…f8febacked Yes | 4c | 562.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a15…7036backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 8cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ae…8370backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 10c | 555$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?this page
- Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?Yes won
- Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.