Venezuela · resolved market
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79103b5ef5a8f42e90ae3d7114db079fe9d7b2a1cdbe9ca2bd2739b7f7940218
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $498,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $496,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $498,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 6c | 44,075$2,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,580.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…39dbbacked Yes | 5c | 21,111$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 3c | 16,320$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.57 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d94…e7f7backed Yes | 13c | 7,428$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 7,330$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.7 | 59 | 5.1%3 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 1c | 6,178$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,703$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da0…73e2backed Yes | 13c | 4,829$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +455.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 4,275$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.78 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…ccc9backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 3,995$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 12c | 3,757$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.16 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 3,642$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.49 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 14c | 3,625$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.11 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2827backed Yes | 2c | 3,600$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…bb2ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,187$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,150$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.6 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 3,022$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 10c | 2,841$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 14c | 2,622$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.21 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e6…30a2backed Yes | 15c | 2,607$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fb…ff10backed Yes | 12c | 2,501$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 2,278$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.92 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 2,277$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 2,275$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.46 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309e…acbebacked Yes | 3c | 2,219$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,949$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 70 | 2.9%2 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 4c | 1,949$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 2c | 1,790$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,784$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6181…ad60backed Yes | 2c | 1,761$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…5e3cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,578$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…5039backed Yes | 3c | 1,397$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…69d8backed Yes | 12c | 1,378$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +170.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 18c | 1,358$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 34c | 1,300$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.73 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 16c | 1,252$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.18 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…c24dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,252$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 6c | 1,250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 4c | 1,157$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 2c | 1,150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed Yes | 2c | 1,136$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…12f3backed Yes | 2c | 1,079$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…dea5backed Yes | 2c | 1,070$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 2c | 1,067$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…9390backed No | 76c | 1,049$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…7cdfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,043$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 65c | 1,000$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba35…0e3abacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 5c | 999.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fef…7849backed Yes | 7c | 998.82$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed No | 78c | 986.62$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.47 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 14c | 958.09$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 943.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 67c | 911.55$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.55 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…99bcbacked Yes | 6c | 907.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 2c | 870.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 4c | 858.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8474…247bbacked Yes | 5c | 857.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 70c | 831.69$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.48 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 800$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 8cpaid | +128%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 8c | 800$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 778.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 4c | 769.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 21c | 750.38$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.72 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 742.31$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x184f…e0b2backed Yes | 7c | 739.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…85e1backed Yes | 17c | 738.93$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 11c | 737.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed No | 75c | 720$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…a062backed Yes | 38c | 707.44$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 3c | 700.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4073…aa72backed Yes | 17c | 699.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2b…3f17backed Yes | 15c | 694.68$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…3f9ebacked Yes | 2c | 653.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4a…9132backed Yes | 3c | 636.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 24c | 629.54$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437e…a774backed Yes | 2c | 605.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…4e05backed Yes | 3c | 604.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 2c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7397…1968backed Yes | 11c | 566.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 14cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…d47ebacked Yes | 2c | 559.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 7c | 550$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a7…4453backed Yes | 4c | 547.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 12c | 524.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…4467backed Yes | 2c | 523.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539f…ed51backed Yes | 10c | 522.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes | 25c | 513$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8a…ede7backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 14c | 499.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd10f…f12fbacked Yes | 6c | 490$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…00cebacked Yes | 6c | 471.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 25c | 467$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…c6b4backed Yes | 12c | 445.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…e3f1backed Yes | 6c | 432.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 6c | 429.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 28c | 423.62$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.66 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 403.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 63 | 3.2%2 W · 61 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17?this page
- Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?Yes won
- Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?No won
- Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.