TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$498,642
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$496,995

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $498,642 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed Yes6c44,075$2,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,580.38825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x362c…39dbbacked Yes5c21,111$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes3c16,320$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.571827.8%5 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d94…e7f7backed Yes13c7,428$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9661020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c7,330$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.7595.1%3 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes1c6,178$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.42245.5%10 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+118.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes3c5,703$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.84306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0da0…73e2backed Yes13c4,829$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+455.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes3c4,275$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.78230%0 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde1b…ccc9backed Yes4c4,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401520%3 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-52%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c3,995$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.07130%0 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Yes12c3,757$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.161656.3%9 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+3.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c3,642$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.49614.9%3 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes14c3,625$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.116836.8%25 W · 43 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a90…2827backed Yes2c3,600$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaef9…bb2ebacked Yes3c3,187$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.82520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes5c3,150$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.66841.2%28 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c3,022$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes10c2,841$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.49933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes14c2,622$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.214316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e6…30a2backed Yes15c2,607$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.1640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6fb…ff10backed Yes12c2,501$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes4c2,278$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.92474.3%2 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes4c2,277$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.46449.1%4 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick4cpaid+50.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c2,275$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.46330%0 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x309e…acbebacked Yes3c2,219$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x429c…5f41backed Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes1c1,949$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.84702.9%2 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes4c1,949$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.834839.6%19 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes2c1,790$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.98110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes3c1,784$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6181…ad60backed Yes2c1,761$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4490…5e3cbacked Yes12c1,578$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19650%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6be…5039backed Yes3c1,397$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad2a…69d8backed Yes12c1,378$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.97560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick27cpaid+170.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3bea…f95abacked Yes18c1,358$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402020%4 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes34c1,300$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.732917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes16c1,252$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.183917.9%7 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a25…c24dbacked Yes3c1,252$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes6c1,250$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.582828.6%8 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes4c1,157$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-42.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d85…3a04backed Yes2c1,150$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+104.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75c0…dfd2backed Yes2c1,136$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…12f3backed Yes2c1,079$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd1…dea5backed Yes2c1,070$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes2c1,067$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.481546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc42f…9390backed No76c1,049$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.77250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xece0…7cdfbacked Yes11c1,043$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No65c1,000$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.59757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes2c1,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181225%3 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-49.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba35…0e3abacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes5c999.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.72045%9 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+28.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fef…7849backed Yes7c998.82$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x641b…5433backed No78c986.62$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.47988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.27per pick61cpaid+52.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes14c958.09$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13260%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes4c943.54$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.31120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No67c911.55$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.551844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x22af…99bcbacked Yes6c907.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked Yes2c870.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-63.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes4c858.55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.08520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-58.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8474…247bbacked Yes5c857.45$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-79.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No70c831.69$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.481747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes6c800$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.21921.1%4 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick8cpaid+128%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes8c800$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674845.8%22 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes2c778.64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.11137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes4c769.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.21323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed Yes21c750.38$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.721711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.21per pick33cpaid-83.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes9c742.31$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.16521.5%14 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x184f…e0b2backed Yes7c739.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe5b…85e1backed Yes17c738.93$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.25520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes11c737.99$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6470%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9720…f4d1backed No75c720$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1802100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick70cpaid+44.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a40…a062backed Yes38c707.44$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes3c700.34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.21717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick11cpaid-38.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4073…aa72backed Yes17c699.99$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e2b…3f17backed Yes15c694.68$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16e6…3f9ebacked Yes2c653.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1a4a…9132backed Yes3c636.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes24c629.54$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.161030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-29.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x437e…a774backed Yes2c605.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc35…4e05backed Yes3c604.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes2c600$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.91040%4 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7397…1968backed Yes11c566.41$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.31837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick14cpaid+155.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x11ea…d47ebacked Yes2c559.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf710…edc9backed Yes7c550$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.52630.8%8 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+5.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6a7…4453backed Yes4c547.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes12c524.59$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.21118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-49.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb901…4467backed Yes2c523.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x539f…ed51backed Yes10c522.9$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes25c513$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.25520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f8a…ede7backed Yes7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Yes14c499.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-60.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd10f…f12fbacked Yes6c490$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c1…00cebacked Yes6c471.43$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes25c467$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+180.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f5b…c6b4backed Yes12c445.24$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf4c7…e3f1backed Yes6c432.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Yes6c429.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.762642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes28c423.62$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.661315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-73.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes5c403.7$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.59633.2%2 W · 61 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.