TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$167,757
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$151,532

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,757 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2b1a…0b78backed Yes44c9,536$4,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,228.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes7c9,093$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.744845.8%22 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes14c8,868$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,245.04248.3%2 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes20c8,699$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,739.8825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No40c5,912$2,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,541.291546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes9c4,897$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.141346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+184.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Yes29c3,623$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.681656.3%9 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+3.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde1b…ccc9backed Yes10c3,500$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3351520%3 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-52%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes9c3,448$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.97933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes10c2,786$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.082828.6%8 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x448b…181abacked Yes5c2,733$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.05616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6989…b412backed No73c2,568$1,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.991850%9 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes21c2,000$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.082714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e77…c4f3backed No69c2,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes6c1,967$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.99110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb464…1d98backed Yes3c1,922$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes1c1,693$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.563256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes19c1,655$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3206836.8%25 W · 43 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c6d…7c15backed Yes21c1,600$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No80c1,468$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.532245.5%10 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+118.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes4c1,437$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.11921.1%4 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick8cpaid+128%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No79c1,402$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.181020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-51.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked No79c1,364$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.371291.7%11 W · 1 L+3.8wins+0.31per pick60cpaid+118.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No79c1,166$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.952638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No60c1,031$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.263030%9 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fc…4b6fbacked Yes5c1,005$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed No80c1,000$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2022365.2%15 W · 8 L+5.1wins+0.22per pick43cpaid+51.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x93bd…59cebacked Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes9c950$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.51241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+56.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d1b…e56dbacked Yes2c797.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x063b…efbebacked Yes3c717.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.221822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes2c716.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5770%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ce…c8b7backed No75c667.19$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed No78c634.27$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.41369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ec…f444backed Yes3c625.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca12…b108backed Yes33c615.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed Yes5c601.69$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee7e…61bbbacked Yes17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+173.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x641b…5433backed No79c574.76$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.7988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.27per pick61cpaid+52.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xed3a…9b17backed No79c500$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked No80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e6…30a2backed Yes40c499.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba23…814dbacked Yes4c477.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafac…8e76backed Yes23c465.69$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10560%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb2ca…5fb0backed No80c437.43$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes22c436.55$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.836521.5%14 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes26c428.73$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.863737.8%14 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+38%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a18…fe45backed Yes24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes5c414.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes19c410.68$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.993917.9%7 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed No75c402.03$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.031275%9 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d29…16bdbacked Yes5c401.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes11c400$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.23per pick30cpaid-90.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e26…2020backed No36c400$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2582100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick32cpaid+222.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c400$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29595.1%3 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed Yes6c383.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.712236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes3c364$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.28520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-74%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac6a…2ed3backed No79c340.91$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dde…b8f1backed No80c338$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e1…1e82backed Yes37c325.75$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477d…55a9backed Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302462.5%15 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf3f0…f05fbacked No73c293$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4657…00d6backed Yes27c293$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b14…3e42backed Yes53c282.9$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+714.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes29c279.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.11729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-30.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf8d…ad1fbacked Yes37c267.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No69c250$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.51050%5 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes8c249.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick11cpaid-38.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes22c241.39$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.041323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0727…9b66backed Yes23c239.78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c236.66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19614.9%3 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca24…4acbbacked No76c234.29$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes8c229.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.39130%0 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5bc…6f51backed Yes35c225.48$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed Yes24c220$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.72330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes8c210$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked No40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16230%0 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd10f…f12fbacked Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1994…b4e5backed Yes6c199.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121338.5%5 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.24per pick14cpaid+105.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x78a1…e6bdbacked No38c194.95$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No70c176.84$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.543828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1873…37b6backed No75c175.84$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.96250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb5c…4ce5backed Yes28c175.2$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa46c…3878backed No68c170.6$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.57450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93c4…feb7backed Yes10c170$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f7…7362backed Yes30c165.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.71425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked No46c165.17$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.191442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce60…6705backed No66c160$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.01450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes25c158.58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.382969%20 W · 9 L+5.0wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+20.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed Yes20c150.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.12835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-43%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe04…9a42backed Yes10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+40.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes30c147.45$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5612425.8%32 W · 92 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd71a…78c9backed No76c142.93$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf836…5d34backed No71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x753c…eb95backed No71c140.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes32c135.69$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.741644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.