TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$612,192
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$672,180

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $612,192 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 332 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x090a…01b4backed Yes19c57,079$10,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,949.591656.3%9 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+3.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes22c21,524$4,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,692.2825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No74c19,659$14,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,055.551060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes11c15,239$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,665.782245.5%10 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+118.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x362c…39dbbacked Yes12c10,069$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes6c10,032$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.091827.8%5 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde1b…ccc9backed Yes9c9,631$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.411520%3 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-52%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No80c9,308$7,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,907.552638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14bf…e3a6backed Yes19c7,741$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes7c6,814$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.9440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes10c6,188$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c5,371$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.97595.1%3 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes19c5,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes4c4,865$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.745219.2%10 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaef9…bb2ebacked Yes5c4,713$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.59520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82d0…3808backed Yes2c4,545$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes16c4,451$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.13955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.24per pick32cpaid+42.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes5c4,411$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.92306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde6e…0169backed Yes7c3,825$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes5c3,669$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.78230%0 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c3,614$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.46130%0 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes9c3,376$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.232714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes24c3,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720326.3%2 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-82.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c2,975$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.92614.9%3 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x867d…3f3bbacked Yes16c2,784$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9b3…778dbacked Yes18c2,728$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes10c2,599$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.22933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b7…5745backed No80c2,580$2,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Yes19c2,306$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.211553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes7c2,098$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.784845.8%22 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes23c2,000$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4fc…a926backed No79c2,000$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.99475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes7c1,989$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.34474.3%2 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No78c1,985$1,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.961741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd38d…5895backed Yes16c1,913$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.991233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bd…59cebacked Yes1c1,900$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafac…8e76backed Yes9c1,882$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16760%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe54b…aa14backed No75c1,736$1,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes19c1,648$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.341118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-70.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes20c1,600$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3121127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-42.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes2c1,597$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes2c1,580$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes7c1,579$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.8449.1%4 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick4cpaid+50.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed No74c1,570$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.621656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes17c1,500$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.032828.6%8 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29a4…2bb1backed Yes1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x448b…181abacked Yes5c1,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes22c1,470$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.394316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes38c1,445$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.93757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes24c1,415$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.318013.8%11 W · 69 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed No75c1,388$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.061833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes21c1,350$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.873917.9%7 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7619…6ee7backed Yes9c1,292$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0280…b1a0backed Yes20c1,272$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0934…f376backed Yes6c1,250$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.45520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+230%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c1,250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5444.5%2 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes3c1,150$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.02110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a25…c24dbacked Yes9c1,138$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes4c1,084$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.362714.8%4 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-43.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes10c1,020$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106248.3%2 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes2c1,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5780%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90130%0 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf5…149bbacked Yes2c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1590%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2102429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aed…e7bbbacked No79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x426e…acd0backed Yes2c1,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde1f…f004backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x210c…d6c1backed No75c1,000$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc17…52e6backed Yes36c1,000$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.72633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-46.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7780…c3e5backed Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e6…30a2backed Yes26c999.99$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f33…a23abacked Yes9c974.24$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8880%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c946.09$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.71644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bea…f95abacked Yes21c942.31$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002020%4 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No60c928.34$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.111442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes23c924.17$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.281822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8df5…e945backed Yes11c909$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-73.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes2c889.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.33702.9%2 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes11c842.7$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.73256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c841.52$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.13137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf44d…60afbacked No80c837$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.4580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+46%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e26…5198backed Yes12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4e1…5c0cbacked Yes15c799.98$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.31per pick24cpaid+102.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f9d…348dbacked Yes18c750$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes22c742.82$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.996040%24 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed Yes24c732.11$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.991711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.21per pick33cpaid-83.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xece0…7cdfbacked Yes14c723.25$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes18c710.18$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.141338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick24cpaid-18.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x063b…efbebacked Yes2c702.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.031822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ae…f11abacked No64c700.63$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x429c…5f41backed Yes17c699$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82f7…7362backed Yes14c695.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c625.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51330%0 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked Yes8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-63.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes22c613.64$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13560%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e02…11dbbacked Yes20c600$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes3c596.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.23per pick30cpaid-90.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca12…b108backed Yes17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes8c579.08$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.571717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick11cpaid-38.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.