MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x619e593cd9e4809a55a0ea2cab9d03e8427e75f34024fc843f20bfec90495490
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 54c | 51,392$27,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,640.3 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Over | 46c | 13,058$6,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,006.56 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 6,622$3,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,046.12 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 46c | 6,000$2,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,760 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 5,418$2,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,546.58 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 5,027$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340.37 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 3,019$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.91 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 46c | 2,613$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.9 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 47c | 2,340$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.05 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 1,595$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.07 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 1,044$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.96 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Under | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 262 | 55.7%146 W · 116 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…8366backed Under | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 29c | 496.26$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.09 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 47c | 400$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 395.45$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.95 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 390$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 76c | 361.91$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 46c | 350$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…2b2cbacked Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 46c | 299$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.54 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 293$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.78 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 289.34$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.22 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 248.63$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.86 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 234.05$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 54c | 159$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 145$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 46c | 127.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Over | 46c | 108.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa95a…6b78backed Over | 46c | 105.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…96a8backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Over | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 46c | 83.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Over | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 46c | 75.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 47c | 74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 53c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 46c | 60.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09cd…9502backed Over | 46c | 57.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 48c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 53c | 51.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 55c | 46.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 41.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 55c | 28.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed Under | 54c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.