MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1546df5e7bf829caf6ab0043f19702de0992ee68a1bf9f104ac4bfa7877de2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 45c | 7,255$3,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,990.35 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 55c | 2,200$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 1,212$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.43 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 10c | 955.45$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.98 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbac…38d0backed Over | 56c | 902.17$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.98 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 892.24$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 63c | 705.13$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.9 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 47c | 541.23$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.44 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 10c | 515$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Over | 57c | 450$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.5 | 262 | 55.7%146 W · 116 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 55c | 350$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 10c | 337$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 271.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.57 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 55c | 257$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.86 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…e183backed Over | 57c | 245.61$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 21c | 222.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 52c | 206.25$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 55c | 200.01$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 54c | 199.96$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.98 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 37c | 195.13$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 54c | 178.07$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Under | 44c | 170.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 33c | 155.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…9a83backed Under | 60c | 125.6$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 53c | 107.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 55c | 95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 292 | 51%149 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…1306backed Over | 57c | 92.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 34c | 88.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Over | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 88.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed Over | 54c | 74.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 31c | 56.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 46c | 50.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 55c | 49.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 46c | 41.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 46c | 34.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 46c | 33.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 53c | 29.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472e…f338backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Over | 53c | 23.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.