MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd110b2f6e80d4be2ef968f5b5acccc0299572831b941e2a8673366e840b80ab4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof New York Yankees, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 34c | 10,230$3,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,488.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 4,638$3,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611.81 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 4,313$1,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.47 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Yankees | 34c | 3,377$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.41 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 1,975$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.92 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 973.69$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.32 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 25c | 424.3$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 75c | 411.57$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.97 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Yankees | 20c | 287.26$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 244.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.94 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 233.82$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.54 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 229.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.51 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 227.97$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.39 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 77c | 225$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 78c | 204.55$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 200$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 184$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed New York Yankees | 27c | 144.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked New York Yankees | 43c | 96.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…93f9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 90.02$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 84.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 83.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 292 | 51%149 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees | 34c | 75.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked New York Yankees | 45c | 72.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 71.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3711…2775backed St. Louis Cardinals | 75c | 55.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 52.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 47.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked New York Yankees | 37c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 41.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 38.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 79c | 36.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed St. Louis Cardinals | 77c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked New York Yankees | 38c | 28.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 25.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 78c | 23.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 20.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 19.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 360 | 50.3%181 W · 179 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.