TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Arsenal FCof Arsenal FC, Coventry City FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$370,367
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$393,055

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $370,367 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 267 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf031…c80cbacked Arsenal FC59c59,959$35,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,582.992441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Coventry City FC40c50,000$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,999.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b1e…82c9backed Coventry City FC41c48,780$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,0003540%14 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3170…c6a0backed Arsenal FC60c39,350$23,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,789.99540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Coventry City FC31c36,942$11,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,327.526,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Arsenal FC60c26,016$15,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,394.8415547.1%73 W · 82 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Coventry City FC39c15,041$5,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,838.761,01233.2%336 W · 676 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe915…3d7fbacked Arsenal FC59c11,078$6,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,542250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa797…dedebacked Coventry City FC4c10,979$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.463452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Arsenal FC60c10,550$6,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,228.254847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e9f…0eaebacked Arsenal FC60c10,303$6,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,121.23450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Coventry City FC40c9,920$3,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,967.981,22049.8%607 W · 613 L+4.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Arsenal FC60c9,876$5,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,948.2423243.5%101 W · 131 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Arsenal FC75c9,692$7,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,416.7488635.8%317 W · 569 L-13.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Coventry City FC43c9,444$4,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,105.36425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-64.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d67…6b86backed Arsenal FC60c8,333$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,333.331593.3%14 W · 1 L+5.2wins+0.35per pick59cpaid+59.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Coventry City FC40c7,996$3,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,189.1759247.6%282 W · 310 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Coventry City FC40c7,962$3,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,196.6155751.5%287 W · 270 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Coventry City FC40c7,601$3,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,040.5317339.9%69 W · 104 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Coventry City FC40c6,492$2,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,606.079735.1%34 W · 63 L-9.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xae2b…90eabacked Arsenal FC60c5,833$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,333.3317634.1%60 W · 116 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-15.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x17cb…3ab8backed Arsenal FC60c5,200$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,08013834.1%47 W · 91 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Coventry City FC40c5,056$2,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,019.212,55047.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Coventry City FC2c4,225$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5519441.8%81 W · 113 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b67…1169backed Arsenal FC60c4,167$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Coventry City FC41c4,052$1,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,661.227436.5%27 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f98…0aa1backed Arsenal FC60c3,178$1,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,271.351225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-47.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Coventry City FC40c2,462$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.847635.5%27 W · 49 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39e7…ceedbacked Coventry City FC41c2,439$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00060%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6980…5478backed Arsenal FC59c2,025$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e0c…832dbacked Arsenal FC60c1,803$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf93…e5e9backed Arsenal FC57c1,754$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.392642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Coventry City FC11c1,751$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.3276842.6%327 W · 441 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Coventry City FC41c1,707$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.8723258.2%135 W · 97 L+13.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x55a6…eeb0backed Arsenal FC60c1,500$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5822…8774backed Coventry City FC23c1,296$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.081921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-62.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed Coventry City FC3c1,206$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.162045%9 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c78…77f1backed Coventry City FC40c1,177$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.93540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-42.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked Coventry City FC37c1,168$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.682245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb00d…af5fbacked Coventry City FC43c1,166$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.52862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+35.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a92…3c67backed Arsenal FC60c1,157$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf1…0db6backed Coventry City FC43c1,100$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.12339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1573…a727backed Coventry City FC2c1,038$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.821040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5652…00c9backed Coventry City FC40c1,016$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.391963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Arsenal FC60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40030149.5%149 W · 152 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Arsenal FC60c992.4$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.963357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6daf…a17cbacked Arsenal FC76c900$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.771553.3%8 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick68cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3a…e974backed Coventry City FC19c875.99$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.823036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Arsenal FC59c847.46$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.463154.8%17 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4cf…3e8cbacked Arsenal FC60c833.33$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.331656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+41.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5108…29cbbacked Arsenal FC60c827.87$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.874100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+93.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa492…adbebacked Arsenal FC59c825.83$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.599131.9%29 W · 62 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-34.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x929a…a3d8backed Arsenal FC60c794.25$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+87.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Arsenal FC59c750$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.51250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Coventry City FC38c703.17$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.121,66234.9%580 W · 1,082 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a55…a82abacked Coventry City FC43c695.42$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002626.9%7 W · 19 L-7.0wins-0.27per pick54cpaid-54.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xf0de…8048backed Arsenal FC60c666.67$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8637…0c86backed Arsenal FC60c666.67$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.67450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad0b…a514backed Coventry City FC45c639$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.551540%6 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Arsenal FC59c582.93$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.246947.8%33 W · 36 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Coventry City FC40c564.09$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.2228456.7%161 W · 123 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4c5…c8c1backed Arsenal FC58c555$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.13857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf5…e71cbacked Arsenal FC57c526.32$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.322962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Coventry City FC43c516.42$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22010847.2%51 W · 57 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Coventry City FC40c512$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.85750.9%29 W · 28 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Arsenal FC59c508.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.4737840.5%153 W · 225 L-15.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf055…02b5backed Arsenal FC59c508.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.471457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0137…b186backed Arsenal FC60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53e1…f420backed Coventry City FC40c499.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arsenal FC80c481.9$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.9557833%191 W · 387 L-29.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bf5…0144backed Arsenal FC58c475.81$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.841346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32be…6da7backed Coventry City FC41c471.76$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.421241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb284…b1fbbacked Coventry City FC2c458.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-54.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Coventry City FC22c422.49$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.448950.1%245 W · 244 L+18.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e2a…39bdbacked Arsenal FC60c416.67$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Coventry City FC40c415.95$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.271,61553%856 W · 759 L+33.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c2b…9b9ebacked Arsenal FC60c415.31$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45e1…5934backed Coventry City FC31c411.29$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.591816.7%3 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-73.2%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x447f…2127backed Arsenal FC60c410.07$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea8…b084backed Arsenal FC60c400$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1604553.3%24 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+28.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x48dd…98cebacked Coventry City FC44c385.19$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.4830%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f41…8f27backed Arsenal FC61c383.78$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.672356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68f8…12c8backed Arsenal FC59c381.36$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.365100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Coventry City FC41c367.24$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.6654340.5%220 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ee3…a899backed Arsenal FC58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.831838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-33.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcbef…0c11backed Arsenal FC60c333.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.331275%9 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34c…2e29backed Arsenal FC60c333.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.331030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3f7…f325backed Arsenal FC60c329.98$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.991435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed Arsenal FC78c300.24$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.056740.3%27 W · 40 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Arsenal FC60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1204557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Coventry City FC40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1207950.6%40 W · 39 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Arsenal FC74c268$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.686038.3%23 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Coventry City FC38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick29cpaid-83.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8c0…19bdbacked Arsenal FC60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f57…37d2backed Arsenal FC60c245.9$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a34…a28bbacked Coventry City FC40c244.65$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.591850%9 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+37.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Coventry City FC29c223.7$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.372759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0b…4771backed Coventry City FC28c206.24$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.95714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-72%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b89…9f72backed Arsenal FC60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90a1…fb15backed Coventry City FC5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.