TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9a92…3c67

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
45
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Europa Conference League, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Europa Conference League at 52 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFClast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT2842.9%12 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Serghei Spivac vs. Vitor Petrino (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Vitor Petrino · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$1,000
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
UFC Fight Night: Anthony Wint vs. Terrance Chatman (Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Terrance Chatman · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
UFC Fight Night: Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Shamil Gaziev (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Shamil Gaziev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$975.47
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Ian Machado Garry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,700
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will the fight be won by submission?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
UFC 330: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Kauê Fernandes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.22
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$235.29
UFC 330: Eric McConico vs. Donte Johnson (Middleweight, Early Prelims)backed Eric McConico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
UFC 330: Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Neil Magny · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$1,325.58
UFC Fight Night: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Santiago Ponzinibbio · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
UFC Fight Night: Rizvan Kuniev vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Rizvan Kuniev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,600Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$533.33
UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Valter Walker (Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Valter Walker · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$880.95
UFC Fight Night: Magomed Zaynukov vs. Damian Rzepecki (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Magomed Zaynukov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+41.3%+$1,031.75
UFC Fight Night: Ramazan Temirov vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Steve Erceg · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,385Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,384.76
UFC Fight Night: Dustin Jacoby vs. Muhammad Said (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Dustin Jacoby · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
UFC Fight Night: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Bogdan Guskov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
UFC Fight Night: Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Axel Sola · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$281.25
UFC Fight Night: Abubakar Vagaev vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Abubakar Vagaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$618.18
UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Kamaru Usman · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$630
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Paddy Pimblett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$1,833.33
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Justin Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+400%+$800
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Alex Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,300
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Derrick Lewis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,536Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+70.2%+$1,078.42
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$5,565Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,565.32
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$10,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+32%+$3,201.32
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$7,700Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+54.4%+$4,191.89
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$5,800Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+35.6%+$2,064.41
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$3,036Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,035.97
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$42.35
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$900
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$63.93
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$338.3
All 12 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,000
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,800Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$1,357.89
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)backed Arsenal FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$694Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$462.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.