UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55ee8f3432635a29d103217225580b00b9e03327291822029236c593c99cc7f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sam Pattersonof Santiago Ponzinibbio, Sam Patterson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $171,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $195,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 16c | 22,222$3,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,555.52 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c5…6930backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 16c | 18,750$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b9…79a2backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15c | 11,900$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4301…f601backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15c | 10,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15c | 6,748$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.2 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -12.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…7980backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15c | 5,950$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.5 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Santiago Ponzinibbio | 19c | 5,853$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.03 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…68cabacked Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15c | 5,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…0386backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 19c | 4,947$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 16c | 4,585$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f20…b29fbacked Santiago Ponzinibbio | 18c | 4,386$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 19c | 4,117$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.41 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15c | 3,447$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.49 | 136 | 36.8%50 W · 86 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…8618backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 12c | 2,141$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.32 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0c26backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb69…cfd1backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 16c | 1,879$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15c | 1,798$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.04 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 17c | 1,231$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.3 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Sam Patterson | 79c | 1,215$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.24 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2d…6443backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 17c | 1,200$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…3c67backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Santiago Ponzinibbio | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 18c | 849.5$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.74 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 16c | 800$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.27 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Santiago Ponzinibbio | 18c | 658.53$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Santiago Ponzinibbio | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…b9f5backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ef…90e2backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 19c | 568.42$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Santiago Ponzinibbio | 19c | 396$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 19c | 381$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4f…4598backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15c | 380$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 19c | 364.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 16c | 357$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…36a3backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15c | 313.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +7.4wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdb…92dbbacked Santiago Ponzinibbio | 16c | 313$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6222…b3e8backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 23c | 299.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddc…03c3backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 16c | 297.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Santiago Ponzinibbio | 18c | 275.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 18c | 266.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 200 | 48.5%97 W · 103 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…d123backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 19c | 264$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…8136backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 16c | 200.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ae…1b3dbacked Sam Patterson | 78c | 191.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +6.6wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…31c4backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 19c | 159.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Sam Patterson | 80c | 140$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Santiago Ponzinibbio | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…b4d5backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 17c | 122.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa95a…6b78backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 18c | 121.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…e406backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 10c | 120.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff97…e7cabacked Sam Patterson | 80c | 111.17$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 110 | 78.2%86 W · 24 L | +15.6wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…0c84backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 20c | 108$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…b0ccbacked Santiago Ponzinibbio | 16c | 106.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 17c | 105.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2900…92b4backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 20c | 103$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7a…d321backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13dd…b2b7backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…a871backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…dcc9backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 16c | 91.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc475…8eefbacked Sam Patterson | 73c | 71.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Santiago Ponzinibbio | 16c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf26…609fbacked Santiago Ponzinibbio | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 18c | 62.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 18c | 58.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Sam Patterson | 76c | 57.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 44.1%93 W · 118 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5173…c07cbacked Santiago Ponzinibbio | 21c | 48.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Santiago Ponzinibbio | 25c | 41.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…e3a8backed Sam Patterson | 80c | 36.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c30…038bbacked Sam Patterson | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39ea…bec0backed Sam Patterson | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Sam Patterson | 75c | 15.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a68…4f4dbacked Sam Patterson | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Sam Patterson win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.