UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x019802313cef1ff93491da2049dab830824d106e8db5bf8295d3403dfe6fa2eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 53c | 76,620$40,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,163.96 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Under | 47c | 69,767$32,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,790.43 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 3,591$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.94 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c5…6930backed Under | 46c | 2,459$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked Over | 54c | 2,450$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 2,115$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.92 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 52c | 2,084$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.68 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 835.15$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.82 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Under | 52c | 597.77$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.35 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a1…e38bbacked Under | 47c | 594.79$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b56…23b4backed Over | 48c | 560.7$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Under | 47c | 489.21$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf99…9840backed Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Under | 53c | 349.06$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…c736backed Under | 58c | 343.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…3c34backed Over | 55c | 323.04$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b0…2c88backed Under | 47c | 266.49$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671d…2e26backed Under | 49c | 202.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf807…c5dcbacked Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Over | 53c | 192.21$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c0…7003backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7290…bdf6backed Under | 48c | 151$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 47c | 140$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae37…4888backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…693cbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba74…cd0abacked Under | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…3426backed Over | 53c | 73.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc06…7f72backed Under | 54c | 69.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 49c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb575…2090backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…8136backed Over | 25c | 46.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc1…9a14backed Under | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf19b…bf9fbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Under | 48c | 36.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…fd82backed Under | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc0…d34dbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Prelims)Sam Patterson won
- Will Sam Patterson win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.