TailMyPicks

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UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Rizvan Kuniev vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Rizvan Kunievof Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$182,105
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$202,091

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,105 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa07…2125backed Tyrell Fortune25c28,321$7,014 inLost-$7,013.781546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ab…a2d1backed Rizvan Kuniev75c21,652$16,239 inWon+$5,412.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Tyrell Fortune26c17,904$4,655 inLost-$4,654.983046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e78…067ebacked Tyrell Fortune5c12,674$607 inLost-$607.363839.5%15 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa046…00c7backed Tyrell Fortune0c10,000$10 inLost-$101723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Tyrell Fortune29c8,888$2,576 inLost-$2,575.8529151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Rizvan Kuniev76c7,500$5,733 inWon+$1,766.883762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Rizvan Kuniev74c6,400$4,736 inWon+$1,66415641%64 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca97…49f6backed Tyrell Fortune30c5,860$1,763 inLost-$1,762.532222.7%5 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-38.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b12…d642backed Rizvan Kuniev71c5,073$3,616 inWon+$1,457.345162.7%32 W · 19 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Tyrell Fortune24c5,000$1,200 inLost-$1,20030039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Rizvan Kuniev74c4,629$3,412 inWon+$1,217.2717050.6%86 W · 84 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Tyrell Fortune17c4,302$739 inLost-$738.8115238.2%58 W · 94 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d8…a656backed Rizvan Kuniev75c3,034$2,282 inWon+$751.795569.1%38 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Rizvan Kuniev73c2,810$2,051 inWon+$758.78353%44 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Rizvan Kuniev73c2,692$1,965 inWon+$726.9215444.2%68 W · 86 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd594…98c4backed Rizvan Kuniev74c2,665$1,972 inWon+$692.998851.1%45 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Rizvan Kuniev71c2,621$1,861 inWon+$759.965149%25 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Tyrell Fortune25c2,586$647 inLost-$646.65050%25 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe02…b9f5backed Tyrell Fortune28c2,449$693 inLost-$6933647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Tyrell Fortune13c2,440$306 inLost-$305.5733132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x09ce…ddd7backed Rizvan Kuniev74c2,387$1,766 inWon+$620.58785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick67cpaid+28.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa4c…9671backed Tyrell Fortune27c2,222$600 inLost-$6001070%7 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a92…3c67backed Rizvan Kuniev75c2,133$1,600 inWon+$533.332842.9%12 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Tyrell Fortune26c1,904$495 inLost-$4954447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd05…0c26backed Tyrell Fortune27c1,852$500 inLost-$5001020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-71.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb92…b1f8backed Rizvan Kuniev76c1,658$1,260 inWon+$397.91163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ceb…b821backed Tyrell Fortune26c1,650$429 inLost-$428.983345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-30.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Tyrell Fortune24c1,608$386 inLost-$385.95152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8239…d9a3backed Rizvan Kuniev77c1,561$1,196 inWon+$364.643857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Rizvan Kuniev75c1,500$1,125 inWon+$37535564.5%229 W · 126 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf17a…8abebacked Rizvan Kuniev74c1,408$1,042 inWon+$366.163467.6%23 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a1…1227backed Rizvan Kuniev75c1,295$977 inWon+$317.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Rizvan Kuniev75c1,250$938 inWon+$312.525251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Rizvan Kuniev72c1,202$869 inWon+$333.5930964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb758…4699backed Rizvan Kuniev75c1,061$795 inWon+$265.443357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Tyrell Fortune16c1,047$167 inLost-$166.7713636.8%50 W · 86 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Rizvan Kuniev76c999.99$760 inWon+$2408461.9%52 W · 32 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+28.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Rizvan Kuniev74c999.98$735 inWon+$264.995459.3%32 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae6e…5c65backed Rizvan Kuniev74c889.66$658 inWon+$231.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1aa…b4bebacked Tyrell Fortune6c849.92$50 inLost-$503577.1%27 W · 8 L+6.7wins+0.19per pick58cpaid+27.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd966…8136backed Tyrell Fortune5c825.16$41 inLost-$41.262025%5 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf87…ce4cbacked Rizvan Kuniev72c696.53$500 inWon+$196.531782.4%14 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+22.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5108…29cbbacked Rizvan Kuniev75c666.67$500 inWon+$166.6716158.4%94 W · 67 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf334…bdefbacked Rizvan Kuniev75c666.67$500 inWon+$166.677159.2%42 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f86…4fa9backed Rizvan Kuniev75c663.09$500 inWon+$163.0914560%87 W · 58 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc36…4ef7backed Tyrell Fortune25c662$165 inLost-$16540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5db…5800backed Rizvan Kuniev77c649.35$500 inWon+$149.352680.8%21 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick69cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c85…9634backed Tyrell Fortune25c591$148 inLost-$147.75650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ef…90e2backed Tyrell Fortune11c569.52$65 inLost-$651540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07c2…b18dbacked Tyrell Fortune27c537.04$145 inLost-$145540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc176…d6ecbacked Tyrell Fortune20c528.12$103 inLost-$103.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Tyrell Fortune17c525.36$88 inLost-$88.2218032.8%59 W · 121 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f3…3426backed Tyrell Fortune28c524.5$148 inLost-$147.7213832.6%45 W · 93 L+0.5wins0.00per pick32cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Rizvan Kuniev71c500$355 inWon+$14537754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1245…e0afbacked Tyrell Fortune26c497.46$129 inLost-$129.34812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Tyrell Fortune25c425.05$106 inLost-$106.247152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed Tyrell Fortune5c423.65$20 inLost-$204746.8%22 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Tyrell Fortune11c418.58$46 inLost-$45.5122438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c62…d8d6backed Rizvan Kuniev73c411.86$300 inWon+$111.869845.9%45 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Tyrell Fortune30c400$120 inLost-$1207843.6%34 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1518…2652backed Rizvan Kuniev75c400$300 inWon+$1001346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9698…2504backed Tyrell Fortune25c396$99 inLost-$997842.3%33 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b97…0f17backed Tyrell Fortune24c396$95 inLost-$95.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a1…ceb5backed Rizvan Kuniev76c393.38$299 inWon+$94.41742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Tyrell Fortune24c372.89$89 inLost-$89.494461.4%27 W · 17 L+6.3wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Tyrell Fortune27c370.37$100 inLost-$10015048.7%73 W · 77 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Tyrell Fortune27c370.37$100 inLost-$1008950.6%45 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa61b…05e5backed Tyrell Fortune27c370.37$100 inLost-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43e0…8618backed Rizvan Kuniev75c354$264 inWon+$89.818434.5%29 W · 55 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a76…3c34backed Tyrell Fortune27c341.37$92 inLost-$92.17633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9874…2e27backed Rizvan Kuniev74c338$250 inWon+$87.882744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5896backed Rizvan Kuniev74c330.68$245 inWon+$85.9814237.3%53 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda16…8e5abacked Rizvan Kuniev74c315.24$233 inWon+$82.245139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-21.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Tyrell Fortune24c312.82$75 inLost-$75.0829133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Tyrell Fortune22c303.46$67 inLost-$66.7622348.4%108 W · 115 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Tyrell Fortune25c300$75 inLost-$7511937.8%45 W · 74 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac65…cfe6backed Rizvan Kuniev69c300$207 inWon+$935463%34 W · 20 L+0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a6…6991backed Tyrell Fortune27c296.3$80 inLost-$801233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+41.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe650…0944backed Tyrell Fortune24c290.01$70 inLost-$69.67650%38 W · 38 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Rizvan Kuniev74c274$203 inWon+$71.2424356.8%138 W · 105 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa308…eef1backed Rizvan Kuniev74c270.27$200 inWon+$70.27977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+49.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Rizvan Kuniev69c268.38$185 inWon+$83.27068.6%48 W · 22 L+8.6wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x610b…36a3backed Tyrell Fortune30c264.44$80 inLost-$804568.9%31 W · 14 L+7.4wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+22.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7a68…98aebacked Rizvan Kuniev76c263.16$200 inWon+$63.1626569.4%184 W · 81 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd8a…535ebacked Rizvan Kuniev74c260.76$193 inWon+$67.83100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+54.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe86…ec62backed Rizvan Kuniev77c259.74$200 inWon+$59.748354.2%45 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6d…d67bbacked Rizvan Kuniev78c256.41$200 inWon+$56.413551.4%18 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Rizvan Kuniev75c249.6$187 inWon+$62.41844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc19…31c4backed Tyrell Fortune24c237.46$58 inLost-$57.62317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.7wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-60.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4dea…5e23backed Tyrell Fortune25c234.1$57 inLost-$57.432030%6 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-45.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Tyrell Fortune27c207.48$56 inLost-$56.0212541.6%52 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2439…3ed7backed Rizvan Kuniev74c202.7$150 inWon+$52.73467.6%23 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x174e…6eb7backed Rizvan Kuniev74c202.7$150 inWon+$52.71973.7%14 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Tyrell Fortune27c200$54 inLost-$5451533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Tyrell Fortune20c200$40 inLost-$408036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09a7…8213backed Tyrell Fortune26c192.31$50 inLost-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4ae…1b3dbacked Rizvan Kuniev74c189.19$140 inWon+$49.192889.3%25 W · 3 L+6.6wins+0.24per pick66cpaid+30.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x36bc…ec72backed Tyrell Fortune27c188.89$51 inLost-$5115848.1%76 W · 82 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6449…e1d4backed Rizvan Kuniev74c185.72$137 inWon+$48.292277.3%17 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.