UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c37ea70d2b343af07b75baa0ad36f7a06aca3769190d437daa4ced92023adaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Axel Solaof Ismael Bonfim, Axel Sola
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $752,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $835,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $752,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 249 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Ismael Bonfim | 37c | 500,174$185,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185,005.62 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2f…2ca8backed Axel Sola | 65c | 211,217$137,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,020.01 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Axel Sola | 63c | 144,786$91,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,570.75 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Axel Sola | 65c | 62,819$40,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,146.03 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Axel Sola | 63c | 38,481$24,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,141.88 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Axel Sola | 63c | 22,087$13,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,172.23 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Ismael Bonfim | 36c | 17,412$6,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,344.2 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…1cedbacked Ismael Bonfim | 36c | 16,034$5,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,772.24 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Axel Sola | 63c | 12,232$7,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,525.9 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Axel Sola | 63c | 10,544$6,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,901.28 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Ismael Bonfim | 37c | 10,177$3,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,714.91 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Axel Sola | 64c | 9,000$5,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,280 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Axel Sola | 63c | 8,766$5,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,243.42 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Ismael Bonfim | 37c | 7,500$2,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,775.08 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Axel Sola | 63c | 7,371$4,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,734.91 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…68cabacked Axel Sola | 64c | 6,000$3,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,190 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Ismael Bonfim | 38c | 4,333$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.67 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Axel Sola | 63c | 3,967$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467.79 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b12…d642backed Ismael Bonfim | 38c | 3,279$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.12 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Ismael Bonfim | 32c | 2,885$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.62 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…98c4backed Axel Sola | 65c | 2,605$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.59 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Axel Sola | 64c | 2,500$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Axel Sola | 62c | 2,397$1,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.94 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Ismael Bonfim | 10c | 2,234$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.71 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Axel Sola | 63c | 2,001$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.24 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8089…f935backed Ismael Bonfim | 9c | 2,000$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.28 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Axel Sola | 64c | 1,875$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Axel Sola | 63c | 1,739$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.66 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde6e…da84backed Axel Sola | 64c | 1,563$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…b4bebacked Axel Sola | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.46 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +6.7wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ba…bbb6backed Axel Sola | 64c | 1,530$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.8 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked Axel Sola | 65c | 1,512$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.36 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…a656backed Axel Sola | 64c | 1,500$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.24 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Axel Sola | 63c | 1,500$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Axel Sola | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…a1b2backed Axel Sola | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…2e90backed Axel Sola | 64c | 1,273$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.15 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Axel Sola | 64c | 1,250$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.79 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f71…b2e4backed Axel Sola | 77c | 1,160$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.44 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +11.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed Axel Sola | 65c | 1,084$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.97 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…ae33backed Axel Sola | 64c | 1,055$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8853…c058backed Ismael Bonfim | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Ismael Bonfim | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Axel Sola | 76c | 949.39$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.94 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Axel Sola | 64c | 888$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.68 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked Axel Sola | 64c | 878.13$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.13 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Axel Sola | 63c | 833$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.21 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0c26backed Ismael Bonfim | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…5ac7backed Axel Sola | 64c | 800$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5db…5800backed Axel Sola | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…3c67backed Axel Sola | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Axel Sola | 63c | 774.99$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.33 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Axel Sola | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.23 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf87…ce4cbacked Axel Sola | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.27 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…4699backed Axel Sola | 65c | 700$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Axel Sola | 64c | 667.6$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.58 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Axel Sola | 63c | 634.91$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…e53dbacked Axel Sola | 63c | 620.68$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…31c4backed Ismael Bonfim | 33c | 615.54$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.56 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Ismael Bonfim | 34c | 589.77$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.98 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f4…2b15backed Ismael Bonfim | 35c | 567.05$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.47 | 161 | 56.5%91 W · 70 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Ismael Bonfim | 37c | 542.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ef…90e2backed Ismael Bonfim | 37c | 541.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…8618backed Ismael Bonfim | 10c | 519.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…d6ecbacked Ismael Bonfim | 19c | 501.01$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Ismael Bonfim | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Ismael Bonfim | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed Axel Sola | 63c | 499.98$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.99 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Axel Sola | 63c | 446.82$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.32 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked Axel Sola | 68c | 425.96$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.31 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf99…9840backed Axel Sola | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99b1…196abacked Axel Sola | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…2e27backed Axel Sola | 65c | 380$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…8136backed Ismael Bonfim | 24c | 362.63$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x538e…77f5backed Axel Sola | 75c | 352.74$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.68 | 93 | 64.5%60 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Ismael Bonfim | 33c | 335.39$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.07 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Axel Sola | 63c | 334$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.58 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Axel Sola | 64c | 313$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.68 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a68…98aebacked Axel Sola | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 265 | 69.4%184 W · 81 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…63d8backed Axel Sola | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c05…2918backed Axel Sola | 77c | 302.41$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Axel Sola | 64c | 302.38$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.86 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Ismael Bonfim | 35c | 299.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Axel Sola | 63c | 299.98$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.99 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Axel Sola | 63c | 291$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.67 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Ismael Bonfim | 16c | 286.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72bc…2065backed Ismael Bonfim | 36c | 280$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Ismael Bonfim | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…3f7bbacked Ismael Bonfim | 37c | 267.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x240b…be12backed Ismael Bonfim | 56c | 266.37$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.26 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…3c34backed Ismael Bonfim | 37c | 262.22$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…dcc9backed Axel Sola | 79c | 245.27$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe650…0944backed Axel Sola | 63c | 239.95$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.78 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa94c…3cd9backed Axel Sola | 66c | 210.99$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Ismael Bonfim | 16c | 210.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…d123backed Ismael Bonfim | 36c | 209$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…8008backed Ismael Bonfim | 32c | 206.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8777…9b72backed Axel Sola | 65c | 203.57$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2280…940dbacked Ismael Bonfim | 35c | 203$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe3…1c0cbacked Ismael Bonfim | 36c | 203$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Axel Sola win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Ismael Bonfim win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.