UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4894bbcd9a69bff817bf510d22eacdd017d3eb008aa6368bda9d47b81f4848d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 53c | 27,749$14,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,680.94 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Under | 47c | 9,429$4,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,997.11 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda39…c640backed Under | 47c | 8,426$3,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,465.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Under | 48c | 2,084$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.54 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 2,009$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.61 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 51c | 1,267$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.83 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…790cbacked Under | 47c | 1,008$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.08 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under | 47c | 1,004$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 47c | 1,002$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.9 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c6…3dd2backed Over | 50c | 1,002$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Over | 50c | 993.43$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.72 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23a3…81b5backed Under | 50c | 920.36$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Under | 48c | 907$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.11 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7290…bdf6backed Under | 47c | 755$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 49c | 695.26$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.58 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a1…e38bbacked Under | 47c | 660.51$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x819d…6e9cbacked Under | 47c | 531.91$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.91 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Over | 54c | 327.78$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 49c | 280$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.89 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 53c | 276$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.1 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0f…d336backed Under | 50c | 256$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Over | 47c | 211.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…c2d0backed Under | 50c | 205$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Under | 47c | 202$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc475…8eefbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 47c | 193$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.29 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c5…6930backed Under | 44c | 135.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7d…83edbacked Under | 44c | 135.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…e9d9backed Under | 47c | 105.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 53c | 104.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…693cbacked Over | 56c | 98.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 53c | 83.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…b591backed Over | 55c | 82.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Under | 53c | 69.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 47c | 68.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…e7d8backed Under | 47c | 50.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Under | 45c | 45.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcd…d3b4backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Under | 47c | 38.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Under | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +5.9wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6b56…23b4backed Over | 47c | 33.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 46c | 22.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c34…b7adbacked Over | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims)Axel Sola won
- Will Axel Sola win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Ismael Bonfim win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.