UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bc197e92b93865dbb3aef7bda2104183b69caa88da28295ac951ca0c22e8511
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 61c | 1,309$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.87 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 64c | 928.05$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.03 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…3c67backed Yes | 38c | 796.34$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 64c | 755.25$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.15 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…22b9backed Yes | 34c | 655.25$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.68 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Yes | 35c | 603.75$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.33 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed No | 64c | 586.95$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.3 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked No | 16c | 563.68$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.14 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…96ddbacked Yes | 37c | 405.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4076…8e2abacked Yes | 36c | 385.88$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 21c | 364.89$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.06 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8acb…6701backed Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed73…7164backed Yes | 35c | 225$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.62 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 66c | 193.82$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.48 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…c80cbacked No | 64c | 190.64$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.63 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…4446backed Yes | 58c | 137.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 64c | 127.35$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…99e1backed Yes | 56c | 114$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0846…6e2dbacked Yes | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…ed56backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc2…74d6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…1f65backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -85%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 32c | 93.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 34c | 81.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2217…8689backed Yes | 40c | 72.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5d…da56backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…00f4backed Yes | 35c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ff…b178backed Yes | 37c | 45.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4923…a3b7backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 75c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9b…98eabacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b59…eebfbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 49c | 36.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fe…4920backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by submission?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)Mackenzie Dern won
- Will Gillian Robertson win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Mackenzie Dern win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.