UFC · resolved market
Will Mackenzie Dern win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ed688b2c8bfe172f9792245f91bbdb8ebc56ec50052d5fdbeb68dcc7762ab4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38f8…f27bbacked Yes | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Yes | 7c | 2,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4076…8e2abacked Yes | 8c | 1,817$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9b…a5ebbacked Yes | 9c | 1,608$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed Yes | 7c | 1,016$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc945…c2b8backed Yes | 9c | 940.72$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56d…16a8backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd26a…37a2backed Yes | 7c | 532.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf15e…80b5backed Yes | 8c | 382.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…2e27backed Yes | 7c | 379.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22b6…62ebbacked Yes | 8c | 340.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Yes | 8c | 314.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd946…7f64backed Yes | 9c | 276.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ee…2895backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 10c | 158.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x389b…2fedbacked Yes | 10c | 139.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aeb…2b0bbacked Yes | 53c | 94.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mackenzie Dern win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)Mackenzie Dern won
- Will Gillian Robertson win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.