UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefe7ee8acc664073cccee9e5f1dac96a2cc1bf0eecccd4215ed37ac8301b1b61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9220…0fcbbacked No | 61c | 22,814$13,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,897.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed Yes | 61c | 18,306$11,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,184.06 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…cd56backed Yes | 42c | 3,215$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,866.59 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Yes | 42c | 2,421$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.27 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed No | 45c | 2,111$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 36c | 1,780$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.15 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 42c | 1,732$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.97 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked No | 55c | 1,648$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Yes | 56c | 1,552$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 55c | 1,543$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.48 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…bdb0backed Yes | 52c | 1,072$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.42 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 40cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed No | 44c | 1,065$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.16 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 55c | 1,045$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.89 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Yes | 57c | 1,000$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.95 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 19c | 899.12$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.11 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 56c | 845$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.8 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked No | 27c | 747.83$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.24 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef4f…4598backed Yes | 44c | 659.89$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.89 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 35c | 637.13$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.85 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…99e1backed Yes | 47c | 605.97$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.16 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 43c | 555$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.7 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ba…4fe7backed Yes | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671d…2e26backed Yes | 77c | 518.17$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.17 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 21c | 489.3$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.35 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…227fbacked No | 45c | 435.04$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.77 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 33c | 408.87$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.56 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 52c | 378.4$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Yes | 42c | 356.2$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.2 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f14…a4ebbacked No | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked No | 47c | 331.69$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.89 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 44c | 284.09$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 24c | 250.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b59…eebfbacked No | 7c | 228.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 45c | 225$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 45c | 216.5$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.32 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc945…c2b8backed Yes | 56c | 206.12$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 40c | 151.19$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.97 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed No | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 239 | 61.5%147 W · 92 L | +16.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2645…ccc3backed No | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…26e3backed No | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…9351backed No | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Yes | 42c | 81.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked No | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcd…0a9cbacked Yes | 58c | 64.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed No | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…28a7backed No | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 57cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 55c | 60.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…a9d9backed No | 65c | 59.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x483b…2fc8backed Yes | 53c | 56.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…291cbacked No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…3c23backed Yes | 47c | 48.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed No | 45c | 44.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 45c | 43.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb44…2399backed Yes | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 78c | 37.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Yes | 28c | 37.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…40afbacked Yes | 51c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0315…26f5backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf08e…1256backed No | 48c | 29.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 38c | 26.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 52c | 24.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…7dc9backed Yes | 55c | 21.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85bc…1909backed No | 50c | 20.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)Mackenzie Dern won
- Will Gillian Robertson win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Mackenzie Dern win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.