MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5a307d1daf414199985523ce98b73bd01daa55b3e77a93b61aab610ee1023f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 51c | 71,909$36,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,276 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 14,107$6,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,912.27 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 49c | 13,700$6,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,713 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 10,079$4,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,945.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 49c | 7,537$3,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,693.12 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 49c | 7,328$3,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,590.72 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…a5a8backed Under | 49c | 5,102$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 3,456$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,727.98 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 2,210$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.97 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x689f…259cbacked Under | 49c | 2,052$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.64 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 2,050$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.86 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb68…4ef3backed Over | 51c | 1,676$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.11 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc279…6465backed Under | 50c | 1,530$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.82 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 49c | 685$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.65 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 624.67$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 49c | 416.33$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 60c | 412.27$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.27 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 49c | 384.45$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.38 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Under | 40c | 382.44$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.97 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 382.25$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.35 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Over | 51c | 343.61$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.37 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 49c | 303$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.47 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 50c | 273$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.45 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 49c | 239$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.11 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 59c | 205$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 50c | 198.37$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a56…c6e0backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…2c99backed Under | 53c | 189.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 189$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 49c | 139$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 49c | 109.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 50c | 107.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6016…1ab5backed Over | 51c | 102.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…96a8backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 49c | 75.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Under | 50c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…fe6bbacked Over | 49c | 61.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 50c | 59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Under | 50c | 58.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 41c | 47.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…85c2backed Under | 49c | 41.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Over | 51c | 35.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Over | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 50c | 22.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Under | 49c | 21.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White SoxNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.