MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7aacd1dc4a63c781e84ffac1661ebab2de69c999254fba399ed9be3cd731e93a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked New York Mets | 37c | 12,945$4,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,156.26 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 63c | 9,632$6,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,068 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Chicago White Sox | 6c | 1,838$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.02 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 1,622$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.58 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 60c | 1,022$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 1,019$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.1 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.9 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Chicago White Sox | 47c | 984.29$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.27 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago White Sox | 40c | 939$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.26 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 38c | 813.07$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 56c | 668.44$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.96 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New York Mets | 56c | 603.48$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.98 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Chicago White Sox | 63c | 341$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.83 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Chicago White Sox | 63c | 288$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.44 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37b…3802backed New York Mets | 38c | 233.68$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.88 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 54c | 225.36$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.72 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago White Sox | 41c | 218.2$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed New York Mets | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Chicago White Sox | 41c | 192.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 176.19$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Chicago White Sox | 12c | 167.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 160.28$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.49 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Mets | 56c | 149.56$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.47 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 56c | 129.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Chicago White Sox | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…c00fbacked Chicago White Sox | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed New York Mets | 36c | 105$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Chicago White Sox | 40c | 101$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago White Sox | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Chicago White Sox | 41c | 70.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 121 | 28.9%35 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Chicago White Sox | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 47.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed New York Mets | 35c | 45.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked New York Mets | 35c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Chicago White Sox | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbafe…33a6backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed New York Mets | 64c | 37.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 34.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Chicago White Sox | 51c | 33.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 18.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Chicago White Sox | 63c | 18.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White SoxNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.