Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Baez (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x712062180007e541a88b12fdd18ce16a3e1bb8d8b7de7dfcec0692dab647c658
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tienof Tien, Baez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Baez | 53c | 2,830$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Baez | 49c | 1,569$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.59 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc144…c809backed Tien | 51c | 1,177$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.57 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Tien | 47c | 903.5$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.5 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Baez | 52c | 849.03$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.48 | 437 | 43.7%191 W · 246 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Tien | 48c | 501.94$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.96 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…46c6backed Baez | 51c | 243.56$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Tien | 49c | 102$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…96a8backed Tien | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tien | 48c | 78.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6e…1256backed Tien | 52c | 72.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 260 | 43.8%114 W · 146 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Baez | 50c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 277 | 44.4%123 W · 154 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Tien | 65c | 45.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Baez | 52c | 43.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 403 | 50.6%204 W · 199 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a5…2ce1backed Tien | 51c | 40.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Baez | 32c | 39.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Baez | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Baez (+1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Open: Learner Tien vs Sebastian BaezLearner Tien won
- Set 1 Winner: Tien vs BaezTien won
- Set 2 Winner: Tien vs BaezTien won
- Tien vs. Baez: Match O/U 21.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.