TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,347,701
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,194,400

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,347,701 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 770 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes0c92,311$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.6317414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd66b…1220backed Yes0c50,797$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.52812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x621e…6510backed Yes12c43,719$5,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,233.23933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+122.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a39…b87fbacked Yes35c34,106$11,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,770.171421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick31cpaid+9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed No55c23,670$13,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,632.6313441.8%56 W · 78 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x104a…5b05backed Yes13c20,393$2,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,621.65540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+767.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes31c20,000$6,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,22015230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes14c19,261$2,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,792.1512138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4133…ea5dbacked No56c17,012$9,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,517.333250%16 W · 16 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+48.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes45c16,580$7,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,505.5235631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d81…06edbacked Yes21c15,968$3,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,305.81911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes2c14,906$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.081657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes20c14,424$2,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,907.0650130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c0c…fbb7backed Yes11c13,941$1,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,571.122850%14 W · 14 L+4.5wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x85f1…e20dbacked Yes2c13,915$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.86425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-45.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No65c13,544$8,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,710.9420143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes3c12,934$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.5148630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed Yes21c12,094$2,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,555.649825.5%25 W · 73 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6868…a90abacked Yes43c11,721$5,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,087.76540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+48.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc662…b919backed Yes0c11,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3414854.1%80 W · 68 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes22c10,433$2,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,281.5435819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c9,350$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.882742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes15c8,703$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.855313.2%7 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-62.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c8,527$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.774769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4669…99c0backed Yes38c8,218$3,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,089.772462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No46c7,905$3,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,249.1351138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66d9…bef3backed Yes3c7,450$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.14122%9 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes29c7,121$2,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,072.573315.2%5 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes13c7,000$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89012744.9%57 W · 70 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+91.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No73c6,599$4,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,787.8725843.4%112 W · 146 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa070…cd87backed No70c6,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes17c6,000$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04826429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes6c5,925$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.4142818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bcf…e964backed Yes23c5,749$1,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.531533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-41.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No70c5,233$3,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,544.2835355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe7ab…b9a4backed Yes11c4,951$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf74…d8bcbacked Yes21c4,838$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+551.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd0f…a925backed No20c4,690$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,746.891844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes12c4,658$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.9336750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes39c4,542$1,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,772.5922262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes14c4,433$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.4619119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes32c4,416$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407.616129.5%18 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes28c4,242$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.1911334.5%39 W · 74 L-7.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd81b…5e32backed Yes24c4,196$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f3…3d98backed Yes4c4,166$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.871250%6 W · 6 L+4.9wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+1,095.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xe555…a91dbacked Yes3c4,100$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.44320.9%9 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5104…a114backed Yes19c3,963$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7413710.8%4 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick15cpaid+57.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No79c3,745$2,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.5513255.3%73 W · 59 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes45c3,578$1,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,592.931241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d7e…8268backed Yes17c3,480$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.81616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+187.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes21c3,257$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.4611323.9%27 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf396…ed0dbacked No78c3,146$2,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.43151.6%16 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa359…a882backed Yes0c3,132$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.173839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes48c3,059$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.2138247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No46c3,050$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.29535.8%34 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes13c3,045$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.0827233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x288e…17d1backed No73c2,900$2,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.08475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9013…fc71backed Yes5c2,893$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505040%20 W · 30 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+93.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef8a…fd72backed Yes8c2,826$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.18812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick44cpaid-84.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No59c2,783$1,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.2542329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9145…fe79backed Yes72c2,773$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002524%6 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x147c…efd6backed No50c2,645$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.49128.3%1 W · 11 L-5.2wins-0.43per pick52cpaid-83.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes9c2,630$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.172438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x803a…9b82backed Yes4c2,607$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid-45.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bf2…c41bbacked No56c2,460$1,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.28933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c2,403$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.861,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked No70c2,336$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.274341.9%18 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4b3…c131backed Yes20c2,329$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.133517.1%6 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+309.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2570…f79cbacked Yes23c2,329$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.11520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c85…31d4backed Yes10c2,323$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22710226.5%27 W · 75 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes48c2,186$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.3815338.6%59 W · 94 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e62…c577backed Yes5c2,169$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.51450%7 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+72.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes17c2,131$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.9447334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a76…53debacked Yes5c2,084$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004940.8%20 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcb2…d2c3backed Yes26c2,031$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.6440%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No67c2,020$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.7619648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes6c2,019$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.433717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes6c2,000$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11619930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa173…3315backed No60c2,000$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.85545.5%25 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e20…40a8backed No71c2,000$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked No65c2,000$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70616638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4457…f3e2backed Yes20c2,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.22343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa224…3769backed Yes32c1,980$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.7980%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes13c1,945$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.716526.1%43 W · 122 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47a5…6834backed Yes2c1,933$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.838033.8%27 W · 53 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+57%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c1,857$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.337135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No64c1,855$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.7516648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7319…0299backed Yes52c1,821$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.834027.5%11 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes15c1,813$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.3667841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes43c1,792$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.5934143.4%148 W · 193 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked No67c1,758$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.9220438.7%79 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed No77c1,731$1,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.344100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+99.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed No77c1,717$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.575570.9%39 W · 16 L+8.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c1,712$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.123588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5730…891ebacked Yes22c1,678$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.761040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ac3…16f6backed Yes32c1,663$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.992343.5%10 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc894…3f4dbacked Yes40c1,629$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+2,617.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3096…58a3backed No49c1,597$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.758142%34 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-29.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes6c1,579$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.473917.9%7 W · 32 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-52%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes22c1,562$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.3413864.5%89 W · 49 L+41.8wins+0.30per pick34cpaid+83.6%equal weight78+0.26 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.