Middle East · resolved market
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x639dc7882509b0cdcf5c3c54b6e12f01b78bc591755bd535f9d2b6e103ea2db6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 4c | 5,279$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.84 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 4c | 4,487$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.72 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf562…4099backed No | 11c | 4,077$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.4 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…a91dbacked No | 3c | 3,105$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.43 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 13c | 3,000$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.55 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed No | 3c | 3,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed No | 10c | 2,594$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.36 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…50aebacked No | 1c | 2,394$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…8efebacked No | 14c | 2,215$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +166.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…0ae8backed No | 5c | 2,174$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 12c | 1,897$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.84 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…7f4dbacked No | 15c | 1,720$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 6c | 1,700$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 4c | 1,470$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36de…d2a0backed No | 5c | 1,458$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked No | 7c | 1,404$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.86 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1afe…b3debacked No | 55c | 1,404$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 7c | 1,360$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.49 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x586b…646cbacked No | 8c | 1,300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +293.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked No | 2c | 1,263$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 1c | 1,260$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…c16abacked No | 7c | 1,206$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…8bb7backed No | 2c | 1,097$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed No | 17c | 877.25$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.12 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…82e1backed No | 4c | 763.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 4c | 749.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 6c | 742.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked No | 27c | 738.4$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.37 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…4cf7backed Yes | 73c | 735.99$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1f…4a6bbacked No | 14c | 706.94$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3f…9ed2backed No | 5c | 701.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…372bbacked No | 14c | 698.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked No | 16c | 697.78$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…cc30backed No | 4c | 671.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…1d66backed No | 10c | 646.37$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 19c | 639.78$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.07 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed No | 6c | 600.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…dae5backed No | 11c | 553.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…6eaebacked No | 3c | 552.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 35c | 536.8$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.4 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb929…e94fbacked No | 18c | 532.63$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +160.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…86aebacked No | 10c | 508.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…c5afbacked No | 7c | 500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 12c | 500$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x152e…cc3dbacked No | 14c | 486.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 6c | 428.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 414$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x046b…340dbacked No | 14c | 403.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d1…8640backed No | 7c | 400.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…9a72backed No | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked No | 23c | 391.13$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.58 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31a6…8699backed No | 6c | 360.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…fb34backed Yes | 71c | 359.39$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.71 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…c0efbacked No | 14c | 357.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +276%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a82…4eb5backed No | 7c | 352.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 12c | 352.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 65c | 350$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 5c | 348.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…d013backed No | 15c | 337.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f74…411abacked No | 66c | 316.8$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 9c | 294.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3477…aa0fbacked No | 15c | 288$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…a62abacked No | 15c | 283$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked No | 7c | 275.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…06a2backed No | 7c | 264.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd2…f624backed No | 14c | 215.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +369.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed No | 5c | 213.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…fad4backed No | 5c | 211.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65f…40a2backed No | 15c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ab…7457backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe838…017cbacked No | 11c | 193.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e7…98b8backed No | 14c | 181.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…d959backed No | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x178f…45b8backed No | 17c | 171.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1892…1b4cbacked No | 7c | 170$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc76b…c745backed No | 9c | 163.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 15c | 162.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x428a…6e79backed No | 12c | 160.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…d5bebacked No | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 13c | 132.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…54e1backed No | 11c | 131.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…78debacked No | 13c | 127.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…b02cbacked No | 12c | 120.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8076…fcbfbacked No | 48c | 112.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -6.4wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…5bf9backed No | 14c | 107.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…bef3backed Yes | 59c | 106$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e6…c364backed No | 15c | 100.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd479…be37backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +8.4wins | +0.26per pick | 33cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe876…c671backed Yes | 80c | 93.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88a7…9a13backed No | 12c | 92.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes | 76c | 82.83$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…b3f7backed No | 28c | 80.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd663…ca64backed No | 14c | 80.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +9.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5595…f5e9backed No | 15c | 71.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da0…a66cbacked No | 17c | 67.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11?this page
- JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?No won
- JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 12?Yes won
- JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 14?Yes won
- JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 15?Yes won
- JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Yes won
- JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.