Middle East · resolved market
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97c0ecb0fb292a63e65ec98c8cb36b04c5940bf63e06b278325a08c7897bdeff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc825…0d88backed Yes | 19c | 17,000$3,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,215.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…e964backed Yes | 18c | 10,148$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,796.24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,944$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,845$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 11c | 5,024$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.83 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 3c | 2,758$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.89 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0c…fbb7backed Yes | 15c | 2,682$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.96 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca72…30cdbacked Yes | 8c | 2,449$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 8c | 2,426$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.12 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 1,643$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…f2d9backed Yes | 6c | 1,627$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,406$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 8c | 1,369$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.04 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,330$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,264$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…4933backed Yes | 29c | 1,181$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,070$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,062$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2822…3f0cbacked Yes | 18c | 975.76$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.87 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…76b9backed Yes | 8c | 959.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 7c | 832.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 10c | 759.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…a8a2backed Yes | 8c | 700$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 8c | 679.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 14c | 671.2$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 8c | 670$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 16c | 601.42$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc88…b7eebacked Yes | 12c | 600$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 567.39$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…f4e1backed Yes | 19c | 536.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…1443backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf11…66d0backed Yes | 20c | 486.41$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 31c | 475$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.68 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 448.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1812…0db6backed Yes | 6c | 445$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 200 | 35.5%71 W · 129 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d62…27e0backed No | 80c | 400$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 13c | 399.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e14…2a66backed Yes | 18c | 391.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 4c | 383.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 10c | 354$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 340.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 71c | 300$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 9c | 292.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 9c | 290$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes | 5c | 280$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…08fabacked Yes | 34c | 277.72$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef02…4f7ebacked Yes | 13c | 255$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…b7f6backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a5…db24backed Yes | 16c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…f9abbacked Yes | 9c | 156.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 16c | 136.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…a98abacked Yes | 20c | 133.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb10…3528backed Yes | 19c | 128.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ff…011cbacked Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…6efbbacked Yes | 12c | 113.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89a…70d3backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed No | 79c | 87.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 12c | 85.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 131 | 6.1%8 W · 123 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed Yes | 15c | 81.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3b…6b17backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 46c | 46.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes | 34c | 39.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…b9f8backed No | 78c | 35.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 43c | 32.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by March 31?this page
- JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?No won
- JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11?Yes won
- JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 12?Yes won
- JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 14?Yes won
- JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 15?Yes won
- JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.