Middle East · resolved market
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1708d08a38715edbd0ad4e1a72cddd71866dd24875046fdaeb0cc1b519b06540
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $778,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $781,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $778,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 416 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7ab…b9a4backed No | 13c | 13,816$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,730.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed No | 4c | 9,334$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.91 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…71c5backed No | 11c | 8,794$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…a925backed No | 15c | 8,775$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.49 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…9e4bbacked No | 9c | 8,053$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.23 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 10c | 8,000$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 3c | 6,951$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.31 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 16c | 6,295$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.84 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…e20dbacked No | 2c | 6,211$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 11c | 6,208$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.49 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 10c | 6,062$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.2 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 2c | 5,882$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.88 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 15c | 5,387$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 9c | 5,262$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.22 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x872e…e58fbacked Yes | 10c | 5,073$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,572.54 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 0c | 4,950$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 6c | 4,800$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.28 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 2c | 4,300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…3ef7backed No | 1c | 3,996$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 3,750$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.92 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ce…1a2dbacked No | 1c | 3,652$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…a0ebbacked No | 5c | 3,324$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 5c | 3,263$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.54 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed Yes | 8c | 3,259$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,998.28 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 14c | 3,068$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.61 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 10c | 3,047$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.51 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 17c | 2,897$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.74 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed No | 5c | 2,853$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 9c | 2,655$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.67 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16a4…fcfebacked No | 2c | 2,541$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…2c4cbacked No | 8c | 2,526$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…61e5backed No | 4c | 2,520$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 2,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc364…79f4backed No | 1c | 2,400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef5f…fb5cbacked No | 4c | 2,396$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 2,232$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…dd44backed No | 2c | 2,212$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 6c | 2,200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +25.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed No | 25c | 2,125$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.5 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c5…aa69backed No | 3c | 2,105$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2c…5011backed No | 3c | 2,105$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed Yes | 48c | 2,100$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.28 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 2,100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cf…544bbacked No | 2c | 2,075$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed No | 4c | 2,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 49c | 1,997$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.55 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 11c | 1,965$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.88 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,964$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,634.14 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 39c | 1,956$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.51 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc322…b2a4backed No | 2c | 1,927$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffa…3187backed No | 2c | 1,921$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked No | 14c | 1,880$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 16c | 1,749$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.39 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 10c | 1,721$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.47 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b0…24c8backed Yes | 23c | 1,718$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked No | 6c | 1,650$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +13.5wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…4940backed No | 7c | 1,606$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.29 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.53per pick | 33cpaid | +144.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…1c2ebacked No | 73c | 1,600$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…8cb2backed No | 15c | 1,600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…c61fbacked No | 5c | 1,524$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed No | 15c | 1,500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 5c | 1,491$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5backed No | 24c | 1,470$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.8 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 10c | 1,450$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.71 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb560…535bbacked No | 2c | 1,398$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c9…eb93backed No | 2c | 1,386$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4d…b139backed No | 2c | 1,386$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…f726backed No | 5c | 1,304$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4027…2bc3backed No | 5c | 1,304$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 13c | 1,300$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +16.4wins | +0.32per pick | 21cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 2c | 1,289$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…b44dbacked No | 1c | 1,277$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked No | 8c | 1,251$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 1,232$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…06e0backed No | 1c | 1,210$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e0…d772backed Yes | 80c | 1,199$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8c…d996backed No | 1c | 1,106$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e65…2a26backed No | 1c | 1,106$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 12c | 1,067$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.01 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +14.7wins | +0.30per pick | 19cpaid | +257.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x5bea…4568backed No | 5c | 1,066$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…82dfbacked No | 1c | 1,046$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 3c | 1,044$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 1,032$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb8…2fbcbacked No | 3c | 1,022$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…2194backed No | 4c | 1,020$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc804…d030backed No | 2c | 1,014$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…716fbacked No | 3c | 1,010$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b40…e399backed No | 1c | 1,009$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 13c | 1,008$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.02 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa688…2f89backed No | 5c | 1,007$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 79c | 1,006$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.34 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cca…08a9backed No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed No | 6c | 1,000$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc65b…51fabacked No | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 9c | 1,000$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed No | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?this page
- JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?No won
- JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11?Yes won
- JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 12?Yes won
- JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 14?Yes won
- JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 15?Yes won
- JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.