TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$778,330
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$781,225

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $778,330 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 416 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe7ab…b9a4backed No13c13,816$1,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,730.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed No4c9,334$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.9119119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf83d…71c5backed No11c8,794$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd0f…a925backed No15c8,775$1,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,336.491844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbad…9e4bbacked No9c8,053$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.231723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-38.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No10c8,000$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77226429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e42…49edbacked No3c6,951$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.314143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No16c6,295$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.8420143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85f1…e20dbacked No2c6,211$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.64425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-45.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked No11c6,208$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.4910528.6%30 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No10c6,062$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.29535.8%34 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No2c5,882$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8837740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No15c5,387$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82042329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked No9c5,262$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.225942.4%25 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x872e…e58fbacked Yes10c5,073$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,572.543234.4%11 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No0c4,950$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.582742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No6c4,800$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.2835631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc8e…944ebacked No2c4,300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.65034%17 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+92.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3c…3ef7backed No1c3,996$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No5c3,750$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.927135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70ce…1a2dbacked No1c3,652$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31dd…a0ebbacked No5c3,324$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No5c3,263$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.543717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71ed…d338backed Yes8c3,259$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,998.281533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+132.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No14c3,068$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.6128827.8%80 W · 208 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No10c3,047$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.5135347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No17c2,897$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.7448923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a1e…bd03backed No5c2,853$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15012840.6%52 W · 76 L+14.8wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+67.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed No9c2,655$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.6719449.5%96 W · 98 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x16a4…fcfebacked No2c2,541$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a4c…2c4cbacked No8c2,526$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004544.4%20 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+110.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f57…61e5backed No4c2,520$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-85.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No12c2,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30015625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc364…79f4backed No1c2,400$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef5f…fb5cbacked No4c2,396$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c2,232$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a58…dd44backed No2c2,212$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.71424.8%2 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+137.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e26…2020backed No6c2,200$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14011250%56 W · 56 L+25.8wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+87.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed No25c2,125$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.54055%22 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c5…aa69backed No3c2,105$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d2c…5011backed No3c2,105$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff99…5602backed Yes48c2,100$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.284959.2%29 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c2,100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.93103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93cf…544bbacked No2c2,075$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed No4c2,000$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885123.5%12 W · 39 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68016638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No49c1,997$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.5527643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed No11c1,965$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.8816231.5%51 W · 111 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes17c1,964$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,634.1447334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed Yes39c1,956$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.519825.5%25 W · 73 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc322…b2a4backed No2c1,927$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-38.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffa…3187backed No2c1,921$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb11…0d5ebacked No14c1,880$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2727830.8%24 W · 54 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No16c1,749$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.3925843.4%112 W · 146 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No10c1,721$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.4742311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7b0…24c8backed Yes23c1,718$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.67425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78a1…e6bdbacked No6c1,650$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1056145.9%28 W · 33 L+13.5wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+73.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x8331…4940backed No7c1,606$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.29785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.53per pick33cpaid+144.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc97d…1c2ebacked No73c1,600$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84a4…8cb2backed No15c1,600$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-70.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eae…c61fbacked No5c1,524$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.111520%3 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-42.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed No15c1,500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22012629.4%37 W · 89 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No5c1,491$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.962036.4%13 W · 190 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c3d…2ff5backed No24c1,470$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.812843%55 W · 73 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No10c1,450$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.7119930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb560…535bbacked No2c1,398$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7c9…eb93backed No2c1,386$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb4d…b139backed No2c1,386$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f6…f726backed No5c1,304$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4027…2bc3backed No5c1,304$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7244…72e4backed No13c1,300$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1675152.9%27 W · 24 L+16.4wins+0.32per pick21cpaid+138.8%equal weight74+0.22 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed No2c1,289$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8220235.6%72 W · 130 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e4…b44dbacked No1c1,277$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ee…008cbacked No8c1,251$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010023%23 W · 77 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c1,232$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.825071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50ad…06e0backed No1c1,210$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95e0…d772backed Yes80c1,199$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.8683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8c…d996backed No1c1,106$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e65…2a26backed No1c1,106$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa095…6040backed No12c1,067$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.014949%24 W · 25 L+14.7wins+0.30per pick19cpaid+257.5%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0x5bea…4568backed No5c1,066$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffe…82dfbacked No1c1,046$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No3c1,044$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2535819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No5c1,032$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.424195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb8…2fbcbacked No3c1,022$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d2d…2194backed No4c1,020$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc804…d030backed No2c1,014$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa20b…716fbacked No3c1,010$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b40…e399backed No1c1,009$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No13c1,008$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.0245843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa688…2f89backed No5c1,007$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No79c1,006$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.3435355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506633.3%22 W · 44 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+156.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cca…08a9backed No11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101070%7 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed No6c1,000$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.728219.5%16 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid+13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No80c1,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80011944.5%53 W · 66 L-17.8wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-32.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xc65b…51fabacked No2c1,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd8…6d54backed No9c1,000$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934015%6 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-21.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4457…f3e2backed No15c999.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.