MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c7cf9c0ae316b85c51c24817e958e5fefaaa64d304abc588280c38375c544a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 53c | 9,092$4,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,819.02 | 849 | 49.1%417 W · 432 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 30c | 4,527$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.35 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 3,140$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.6 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…88a3backed Under | 54c | 2,500$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 122 | 55.7%68 W · 54 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…552ebacked Under | 50c | 2,478$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.93 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 2,250$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 71c | 1,945$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.05 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 62c | 1,567$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.35 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 46c | 1,548$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.88 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 48c | 1,024$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.48 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 24c | 999.98$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 69c | 941.19$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.59 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 60c | 674.57$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.12 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 664$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.36 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 48c | 626.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.35 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 47c | 585$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.05 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 20c | 518.64$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 506.45$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.95 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 47c | 478.48$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.39 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 47c | 432$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.96 | 1,139 | 42.7%486 W · 653 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Under | 51c | 414.71$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 72c | 404.88$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.57 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 48c | 300.68$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.35 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 21c | 252.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…d1eebacked Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 225$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.75 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 76c | 217.83$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,201 | 49.1%590 W · 611 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 48c | 147.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.91 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked Under | 21c | 142.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 45c | 117$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 324 | 34.6%112 W · 212 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 43c | 102.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…96a8backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +54%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 50c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…5862backed Over | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 47c | 79.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 72.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 17c | 72.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…de06backed Under | 54c | 71.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 168 | 51.8%87 W · 81 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 79c | 56.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Over | 68c | 56.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5399…2b4fbacked Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 33c | 44.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 79c | 39.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 61c | 35.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9b21backed Under | 53c | 25.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Over | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…ac24backed Over | 76c | 19.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 67c | 17.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 396 | 53%210 W · 186 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b1aebacked Over | 77c | 14.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.