TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,899
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,919

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,899 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x408f…b2f4backed No53c21,773$11,500 inLost-$11,5004348.8%21 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Yes49c8,407$4,078 inWon+$4,329.483,50951%1,789 W · 1,720 L+53.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Yes44c2,677$1,165 inWon+$1,511.5961652.8%325 W · 291 L+31.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Yes47c2,500$1,175 inWon+$1,3251,30150.2%653 W · 648 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes48c2,000$950 inWon+$1,0505,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes47c1,680$790 inWon+$890.448653.7%261 W · 225 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes46c1,137$526 inWon+$611.318,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x885f…8ed9backed Yes48c1,000$475 inWon+$52534353.4%183 W · 160 L+18.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c8e…a316backed Yes46c1,000$460 inWon+$54022638.5%87 W · 139 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes48c832$402 inWon+$429.646,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3603…22edbacked Yes46c250$115 inWon+$13551849.4%256 W · 262 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes48c249$120 inWon+$128.832,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes50c235.75$118 inWon+$117.592,31052.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Yes37c125.95$46 inWon+$79.7619854.5%108 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8509…fd97backed No51c118.36$60 inLost-$603432.4%11 W · 23 L-4.5wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yes47c75$35 inWon+$39.751,81949.3%896 W · 923 L-24.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes47c74$35 inWon+$39.221,53848.6%747 W · 791 L-5.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7aa…08c3backed No51c58.82$30 inLost-$307655.3%42 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3108…47eabacked Yes50c53.92$27 inWon+$26.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked No64c46.58$30 inLost-$29.955,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa96b…7d92backed No51c41.18$21 inLost-$2119341.5%80 W · 113 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b9d…3373backed Yes37c40$15 inWon+$25.21947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed No50c24$12 inLost-$1283854.7%458 W · 380 L+29.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Yes50c20.47$10 inWon+$10.231,82854.1%989 W · 839 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.