MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9656b34f2dac8e5116b8350227ffb1bf46edcf685ca07f72928ea9046023e171
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 9,230$4,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,522.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 9,040$4,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,328.76 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over | 56c | 3,600$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 45c | 3,548$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.6 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 56c | 3,430$1,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.34 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 56c | 1,745$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.64 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Under | 46c | 1,735$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.3 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 46c | 1,735$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.3 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 44c | 1,007$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.08 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 54c | 839.99$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 8c | 794.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6600…d5fdbacked Under | 46c | 653$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.38 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 594.71$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.67 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 72c | 490.61$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.62 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed Under | 46c | 439.13$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 54c | 399$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.54 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked Under | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 8c | 361.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 55c | 338.99$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.55 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf3…50a8backed Under | 45c | 212.76$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.74 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…f527backed Under | 46c | 208.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Under | 46c | 173.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Over | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 56c | 121$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed Under | 46c | 106.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…ea41backed Under | 46c | 106.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 12c | 105.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Under | 46c | 104.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Under | 46c | 104.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Over | 54c | 96.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 53c | 96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…7593backed Under | 46c | 87.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Under | 46c | 87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 42c | 79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Under | 45c | 75.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 57c | 54.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3599…5338backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 42.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…9854backed Under | 45c | 42.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…dff0backed Under | 45c | 42.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…98b6backed Under | 45c | 42.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…1bd8backed Under | 45c | 42.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…cfdebacked Under | 46c | 41.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba71…1209backed Under | 46c | 34.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 53c | 32.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 55c | 25.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 50c | 21.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…951ebacked Over | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5399…2b4fbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Over | 55c | 19.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Over | 55c | 18.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.