MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa18ea6528192472304a955b0d5a485b1426aa4eabe104295ccfb6ec8067280ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 17c | 10,170$1,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,688.65 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Francisco Giants | 31c | 1,003$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.08 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed San Francisco Giants | 32c | 797.48$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.76 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 20c | 573.66$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 69c | 308.9$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.76 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 10c | 264.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Francisco Giants | 31c | 229.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 212$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 206.15$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…b6ffbacked San Francisco Giants | 31c | 193.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +9.4wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed San Francisco Giants | 9c | 127.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 15c | 121$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked San Francisco Giants | 20c | 120.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked San Francisco Giants | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 32.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.