MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2938b155668f8fb232864113be14aa392708da2f6ca9d35d9e549b15926630bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 33,333$13,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,333.2 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 64c | 23,889$15,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,664.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 18,532$11,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,412.85 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 36c | 10,355$3,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,603.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 7,962$2,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.04 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 7,463$5,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,214.47 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked San Diego Padres | 48c | 4,515$2,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154.83 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego Padres | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 1,707$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.85 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 1,500$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.27 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 1,198$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.07 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 1,024$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 759.77$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.51 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Diego Padres | 54c | 598.83$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.88 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 541.92$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.87 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 527.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.39 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 424.11$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.78 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 395.22$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.67 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 29c | 382.03$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.91 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 279$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.81 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 278$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.02 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 258.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.64 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 214.55$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.82 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…d1eebacked San Diego Padres | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed San Diego Padres | 24c | 171.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked San Francisco Giants | 59c | 158$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 148.35$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked San Diego Padres | 49c | 143.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed San Francisco Giants | 70c | 117.93$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 116.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 110.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked San Francisco Giants | 46c | 108.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked San Diego Padres | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed San Francisco Giants | 68c | 95.41$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 30c | 91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 89.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked San Diego Padres | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed San Francisco Giants | 70c | 86.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 83.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed San Francisco Giants | 67c | 77.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked San Francisco Giants | 37c | 75.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked San Francisco Giants | 49c | 75.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Diego Padres | 34c | 73.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked San Diego Padres | 49c | 69.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa187…aa65backed San Diego Padres | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked San Francisco Giants | 37c | 63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed San Francisco Giants | 66c | 59.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked San Diego Padres | 31c | 56.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 54.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 54.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked San Diego Padres | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed San Francisco Giants | 25c | 46.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked San Francisco Giants | 78c | 45.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 44.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked San Francisco Giants | 30c | 44.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 41.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 39.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed San Diego Padres | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 37.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…a242backed San Diego Padres | 34c | 37.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed San Diego Padres | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 20.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed San Diego Padres | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.